The Coronavirus
Worldwide, new cases dropped more than 30 percent since Sept. 1. Experts credit increasing vaccination rates in many countries, as well as exhaustion of the Delta variant.
After 560 days, Norway lifted pandemic restrictions. Nepal re-opened to tourists. India is seeing relief after months of crushing disease, with current new case and death totals lower than seen since early spring.
However, Jordan’s Crown Prince of Jordan tested positive for Covid-19. War-torn Syria is struggling with a Covid surge and hospitals with no supplies or equipment to help patients; less than 2% of its population is vaccinated.
In the US, new daily cases dropped 35% since Sept. 1, as the Delta wave ebbed in hard-hit southern states.
In the last 2 weeks, US cases have decreased 20%, and hospitalizations are down 21%. Finally, deaths are decreasing; the rate dropped 14% in the last 2 weeks. We are averaging 98,000new cases per day. 70,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with Covid, and the death rate averages 1,700 people per day.
Midwestern states (Minnesota, Michigan, Wyoming, N. Dakota, and others) are now in trouble, with Covid infections and hospitalizations rising sharply. Hospitals state-wide in Alaska and Idaho remain so overwhelmed with unvaccinated Covid patients that they are still forced to ration care, treating only those most likely to survive.
Big pharma’s Merck announced that its new antiviral pill, molnupiravir, was shown in a clinical trial to cut in half the risk of hospitalization or death when given to high-risk people early in their Covid-19 infections. This efficacy is lower than that the 75-80% success rate of the monoclonal antibody treatments now available; antibodies were originally administered as a time-consuming infusion, but recently hospitals have changed to a single injection method. The federal government has placed advance orders for Merck’s drug. It still has to go through submission and review before FDA approval.
Over 120,000 children in the US lost a parent or caregiver due to Covid-19, so far.
The official death toll in the US passed 700,000 last week. Recent deaths are 99% unvaccinated, concentrated in the south, and include people younger than ever. Twice the number of rural residents are now dying of Covid-19, compared to city dwellers. With vaccines available to all adults since the spring, the last 200,000 deaths were preventable (some say VOLUNTARY). 200,000 AMERICANS DIED BECAUSE THEY REFUSED TO GET VACCINATED.
Covid has reduced life expectancy worldwide. Out of everyone, US males lost the most time– 2.2 years relative to 2019 levels. Losses of this magnitude haven’t been seen since WWII.
US Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh tested positive on Oct. 1, despite being vaccinated in January. He reported no symptoms from the breakthrough case but had to miss Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s investiture ceremony and participate remotely for in-person arguments that started last week after 18 months of only phone communications.
Covid certainly isn’t over. Costco recently instituted new buying limits on toilet paper, water and other essential items, due to continued high volume purchasing, as well as port delays, labor shortages and supply chain issues—all because of the pandemic.
We have seen wave after wave of high Covid-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The big question is: Will the Delta surge, now ebbing, be the LAST SURGE? Are we done riding the pandemic rollercoaster? Experts are divided. Some say the worst is over, due to the ever-increasing rate of vaccinations. Others point out that cold weather and major holidays (with associated gatherings and travel) are just ahead, all of which increase spread. Plus, a variant even more contagious than Delta or resistant to our vaccines could emerge at any time.
In Texas, things are definitely improving. The current positivity test rate is 9%, down from 13% 2 weeks ago. We are averaging 7,800 new cases and 250 deaths daily. As of now, there are 8,600 Texans hospitalized for Covid-19. In the last 2 weeks, cases have decreased 35%, hospitalizations dropped 29%, and deaths finally reversed trend–down 14%.
Vaccinations–the safe path to herd immunity
Worldwide, 6.4 billion shots have been given, with 35% of the population fully vaccinated.
Portugal has fully vaccinated 98% of its eligible population.
Much of Asia is having great success with vaccinations. South Korea, Japan and Malaysia are vaccinating their populations at a higher rate than the US; their current cases, hospitalizations and deaths are low. Asians tend to prize community good over personal freedom, and the culture does not encourage misinformation or conspiracy theories.
Australia and New Zealand are relaxing travel restrictions, but ONLY for vaccinated people.
Africa still lags on vaccinations, with only 9 countries having vaccinated even 10% of the population. Overall, just 4% of Africa is vaccinated.
The Vatican is requiring all employees and visitors to show proof of vaccination or a recent negative test. (Interestingly, there is no “religious beliefs” exemption.)
Canada announced that all air and rail passengers must be fully vaccinated by Oct. 12. Also, all federal employees, the military, and Royal Canadian Mounted Police officers must be vaccinated by Oct. 29.
France is encouraging shots by providing free testing to people who are vaccinated.
Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, has long raged against Covid and vaccines; his wife got vaccinated recently while in New York City for the UN General Assembly.
The US is donating ANOTHER 500 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to countries not able to vaccinate their own populations. This brings the total to more than 1.1 billion doses donated by America.
In the US, 56% of the entire population is fully vaccinated; 65% of adults are fully vaccinated. On average, we are now giving around 950,000 shots per day, but that includes boosters.
60 million Americans are covered by the CDC’s September Pfizer booster ruling, with 20 million eligible now.
RED COVID. This is how a recent NY Times article summed up the current situation. Vaccine hesitancy started out based on many factors, but most have been resolved in recent months. The one that remains is party affiliation; 86% of Democratic voters are vaccinated, compared to only 60% of Republican voters. Since the unvaccinated account for very nearly all deaths now, Republicans are dying in droves, compared to Democrats. Odd that GOP politicians are unconcerned about voter deaths, if only for practical purposes….
Last summer saw a spike in vaccinations in Hispanics. Now, 73% of Hispanic adults are vaccinated, exceeding 72% of white adults who are vaccinated.
Vaccine mandates are working across the country. Businesses and government entities are reporting big jumps in vaccination rates, as workers meet deadlines. The NYC public school system reports 96% of teachers are vaccinated, along with 99% of principals; over 43,000 shots were given to this group since the mandate was announced in August. New York reported the vaccination rate of its health care workers jumped from 75% to 92% as over 100,000 workers got a shot. United reported that 99% of its workforce is vaccinated, per its mandate. Tyson Foods reported its mandate increased vaccinated workers from under 50% to over 90% of the workforce, with 1 month left in the grace period.
| AT&T is requiring its workers to be vaccinated. American Airlines, Southwest, JetBlue and AlaskaAir are following United’s lead and requiring employees to be vaccinated. The San Diego school district is requiring all staff and students (age 16 and up) to be vaccinated. City of Los Angeles will, as of Nov. 4, require people to provide proof of full vaccination in order to enter most indoor businesses, including bars and restaurants, salons, gyms, museums, and movie theaters. Those not vaxed due to medical condition or religious objection can instead provide proof of a recent negative test. |
The NBA has a vax rate of 95% of players and staff. It recently announced that unvaccinated players won’t be paid if they miss a game due to local laws requiring vaccination to enter large public gatherings. Louisiana’s largest nonprofit health insurer, Ochsner Health, announced it would charge an additional $200 per month, for anyone NOT vaccinated. This reflects the high cost of hospital care for Covid-19. Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death for law enforcement officers. A large segment remains unvaccinated, with their unions fighting vaccine mandates. |
YouTube recently announced it has banned videos pushing mis-information on vaccines and is closing the accounts of notorious anti-vaccine activists.
In Texas, only 52% of all residents and 62% of adults are fully vaccinated.
Recent Covid articles I recommend….
The Covid Fable 10/8/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/briefing/covid-restrictions-delta-caseload.html
How to Use Rapid Home Tests (Once You Find Them) 10/7/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/well/live/covid-rapid-at-home-test.html
Pfizer Asks F.D.A. to Authorize Its Covid-19 Vaccine for Children 5 to 11 10/7/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/us/politics/pfizer-fda-authorization-children-5-11.html
A Guide for Covid-19 Risk in Your County 10/3/21 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-risk-map.html
U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Surpasses 700,000 Despite Wide Availability of Vaccines 10/1/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/us-covid-deaths-700k.html
Merck says a trial shows it has produced the first effective antiviral pill for Covid 10/1/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/merck-antiviral-pill-covid.html
Red Covid 9/27/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/briefing/covid-red-states-vaccinations.html
Answers to Your Questions About Covid Booster Shots 9/24/21 https://www.nytimes.com/article/booster-shots-questions-answers.html
Daring Mighty Things
Captain Kirk is going into space. Sort of. Actor Bill Shatner is scheduled to leave the planet as Jeff Bezos’ guest on Blue Origin’s Oct. 12 flight. He will be 1 of 4 passengers, shooting 60 miles up for a few minutes of weightlessness and a nice view into the inky darkness of space beyond. If things go as planned, Shatner at age 90 will become the oldest human to do so. (But, he won’t be the first Enterprise member to leave Earth; the ashes of Star Trek creator Gene Roddenberry and Scotty portrayer James Doohan blasted into deep space years ago.) William Shatner will fly to space aboard Blue Origin rocket 10/4/21) https://apnews.com/article/william-shatner-star-trek-blue-origin-space-jeff-bezos-e10877d624a4cc0be9385585c2647cdd
Speaking of theatrics, a Russian film crew (director, actress and astronaut advisor) is on the International Space Station now for a 2-week stay, shooting the first feature-length film in space. A Russian Film Crew Has Boarded the Space Station 10/5/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/05/science/russia-space-launch.html
Texas elections
Texas has an election coming up on November 2. Early voting runs from Oct. 18-29. No candidates are on the ballot, but there are several propositions to vote up or down.
Lake Travis ISD has Proposition A on local ballots. It is asking to move revenue from 1 part of the existing tax rate to another, with the result that $3 million STAYS LOCAL and is not recaptured by the state’s funding formula. Pass or fail, this proposition will NOT change your tax bill. Unfortunately, the blurb appearing on the ballot makes it sound like a tax increase, likely dooming it. Read more here: Lake Travis school district tax rate election gives voters the option to keep dollars local 10/7/21 https://www.statesman.com/story/news/local/lake-travis-view/2021/10/07/lake-travis-school-district-what-to-know-tax-rate-election-2021/6006770001/
In addition, there are 8 constitutional amendments on the ballot. Read this to decide yes or no: 8 statewide propositions on Texans’ November 2021 ballot and what they mean 9/24/21 https://communityimpact.com/houston/conroe-montgomery/election/2021/09/24/8-statewide-propositions-on-texans-november-2021-ballot-and-what-they-mean/
Matt Dowd for Texas Lt. Governor! Finally—someone enters the 2022 Texas elections who I can vote for proudly. Matthew Dowd, former George W. Bush strategist, to run as Democrat for Texas lieutenant governor 9/29/21 https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/29/matthew-dowd-texas-lieutenant-governor/
What about Matthew McConaughey for Governor? In a podcast with Kara Swisher, he refuses to answer the salient questions. He is very entertaining, even charming. Well, of course he is—THAT is his thing. But, he shows nothing to indicate he has the intelligence, dedication or tenacity necessary to be Governor of Texas, particularly now when we face so many dire crises. From his rather annoyingly lofty comments, he is still “measuring” whether politics is where he can do the most good. Re: party affiliation, all his middle of the road talk sounds like he sees himself as decidedly centrist and an Independent. Bottom line, this gifted actor acted interested in the possibility of running. Is Texas Ready for Matthew McConaughey? 10/7/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opinion/sway-kara-swisher-matthew-mcconaughey.html
In Lakeway
Council hasn’t had a meeting since my last blog, and it doesn’t meet until Oct. 18.
ZAPCO meets on Oct. 12, 9am at City Hall. Lucky item 13 is The Square on Lohmans, Legend’s zombie town-center proposal. For background, go here to watch item 10 of the Sept. 13 joint session that Council and ZAPCO had, including a Legend presentation and officials discussing this– https://lakewaytx.new.swagit.com/videos/139436
Legend’s request is to change zoning from residential and commercial to PUD for 69 acres (up from 57 acres in September) on Lohmans. This is the very dense town center development proposed in lieu of the 130 single-family homes Council approved there in 2019. Legend never moved forward on that, and its portion of Main Street has not been started. Now, it wants to build 322 residences (single family, multifamily and rentals above commercial space), as well as much, much more on the tract, all geared toward walkability. The result looks like a Main Street so cluttered, choked and congested that it completely fails to provide the efficient connector road we so desperately need. ZAPCO will review the project and either approve or disapprove it; Council will then decide the matter.
Go here (and scroll down to ZAPCO) to find the Meeting Packet, which has a raft of materials—a lot being new info, drawings, etc.–on the current version of the proposed development (starting about half-way through the voluminous document)—https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/archive.aspx
You can speak for 3 minutes at the meeting. (Unfortunately, since Monday is a holiday, the deadline for submitting written comments was 3pm Friday, Oct. 8). Go here to watch the ZAPCO meeting online (live or later)—https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/1062/Videos—Meetings-Events
GO VOTE! There is a proposition-only election on Nov. 2. Early voting runs from Oct. 18-29. See the info and links in the Texas elections area above to decide yes or no.
Back to me….
So, free time … what a concept! Not sure if this is early retirement or just an in-between-jobs phase, but I’m really enjoying it.
Good books I recently finished (available at Lake Travis Community Library):
—Madam Speaker (2021), by Susan Page—This meticulously researched book covers Nancy Pelosi from her parents’ political path all the way through the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection. Overall fascinating, it really grabs attention when she finally enters national politics herself at age 46, then shoots quickly to the top of Democratic leadership where she has wielded power for over 30 years.
—The Boy from the Woods (2020), by Harlan Coben—This is a good read, but I expected more from the debut of a new protagonist set in Coben’s richly drawn world. Even with back-up from supporting characters well-known from the Myron Bolitar series, the eponymous Wilde is disappointingly cardboard. The only real surprise, for me at least, was on the very last page.
Please DRIVE CAREFULLY. The deer are doing their fall thing. My morning walks follow pretty much the same pattern, but I see far fewer deer than in the summer.
For photos here, this time I’m showcasing the lovely does in our herd, starting with Clarice, a mature doe who generally hangs out on upper Vanguard. For nearly 2 years, she was increasingly hobbled by a big shard of PVC pipe embedded above her right front hoof. (No, I don’t usually name deer; I got tired of referring to her as the gimpy doe, so I named her after Rudolf’s sweetheart in the Christmas classic.) Last summer, Clarice was barely mobile and clearly in severe pain. Now, after state-approved intervention, she is recovered and running with the herd; she sometimes limps very slightly but overall it is hard to identify her now–except, I swear she grins at those of us who helped her. I would love to give credit where credit is due, but the pros involved required me to sign an NDA. But, I can send a HUGE thank you to CAFA for paying a big chunk of the cost of helping this sweet doe get back to normal.
