So, one week later, and it is a different world….
As of March 22, the US has surged past France, Germany, Iran and Spain and is now behind only Italy and China in the COVID-19 race, with 32,580 confirmed cases and 415 deaths. In Texas, testing finally started; so far, there are 334 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. Both Texas and Lakeway declared disasters and took interim steps. All schools, restaurants and bars (other than take-out/delivery), and gyms are now closed. Gatherings are limited to 10 people, effectively shutting down all events. People have been asked to stay home when they can.
Little has happened at the federal level; relief measures are in process. The 50 states seem to be expected to handle the pandemic individually. Unfortunately, our governor has so far failed to take the critical step of closing all non-essential businesses and ordering residents to stay home. This type of lockdown is already in place in several other states (NY, CA, IL, PA, NJ, OH, and LA as of today). Medical experts warn that Texas hospitals are unprepared and ill-equipped to deal with the anticipated deluge of seriously ill patients. Soon, it will be too late for even a lockdown to stem the tide in Texas.
Right now, countries—including the United States—have 2 choices regarding handling COVID-19, mitigation or suppression. These are the options analyzed in 2 papers (the HHS Report in the US and the Imperial College Report in the UK) recently provided to governments.
If you aren’t familiar with the issue, then start with this short article–Every lockdown is a good thing and there isn’t a moment to lose, but only testing can save America https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/20/1929361/-Every-lock-down-is-a-good-thing-and-there-isn-t-a-moment-to-lose-but-only-testing-can-save-America?detail=emaildkre
If you can, also read this crucial article; it isn’t short or easy, but it is important–Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time, By Tomas Pueyo https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Again, the choice is mitigation or suppression.
Mitigation is reducing exposure with half measures that only slightly flatten the curve, knowing that most of the population will still get sick very quickly. The result is likely to be 10 million people dead in the US alone. Then, the hope is the worst is over and life can get back to normal in a few weeks. (The 3 biggest problems with mitigation are detailed below.)
Suppression is controlling movement of the population, vastly reducing infection and keeping the death rate down to thousands instead of millions.
Some people favor mitigation because they say letting the virus run its course will get things over with quickly, avoiding the economic collapse sure to happen otherwise. They assume suppression would keep people locked down for months; that is not the case. Going by the experiences of countries now emerging from the pandemic, the dire restrictions of suppression (termed “the hammer” in Pueyo’s article above) are only needed for a few weeks to get COVID-19 under control. China did it with severe lockdowns. South Korea Singapore, Taiwan and Japan instead did it with stringent testing, tracing, travel bans, isolating and quarantining.
After that comes “the dance” part of suppression, which will continue until a vaccine is developed for COVID-19. The economy recovers during this phase. There will be outbreaks here and there; restrictions will need to tighten up and then can be released. We will have to balance economy vs. healthcare–getting life back to normal vs. spreading the disease.
Another huge problem with the mitigation strategy is that it assumes those who get COVID-19 and survive will be immune; mitigation depends on herd immunity to end the pandemic. However, China found this virus mutated fast–it was actually the mutated strain that spread worldwide. If allowed to happen, millions of US cases would foster mutation, so survivors would NOT be immune. The horror show would play out over and over, with millions more dying each cycle.
Worst of all, mitigation doesn’t allow us the time needed to develop effective treatments or even a cure for COVID-19; already, there are promising possibilities being tested. Plus, time would allow us to build up the needed medical resources, everything from masks to ventilators, and to train more medical personnel. Why sacrifice 10 million people if there is a chance to save them? Suppression would give our scientists and doctors precious time.
As Pueyo’s article states, this is the choice—
MITIGATION: On one side, countries can go the mitigation route: create a massive epidemic, overwhelm the healthcare system, drive the death of millions of people, and release new mutations of this virus in the wild.
OR
SUPPRESSION: On the other, countries can fight. They can lock down for a few weeks to buy us time, create an educated action plan, and control this virus until we have a vaccine.
Just click on Texas (or any other state) in the map graphic on this site to see the numbers of projected deaths for 4 responses to COVID-19—doing nothing, social distancing, shelter in place, lockdown. You will see the difference suppression/lockdown can make. https://covidactnow.org/?fbclid=IwAR3uMh9Q08L6O_3ZJzHYBpL4FkyGJQfKSg8V2o-3nUwsTm1Gl6s1xAvLquY
Right now, several states are choosing to fight, by locking down their populations temporarily. They hope to stop the virus from spreading, save millions of lives, and give doctors and scientists time to find effective treatments and develop a vaccine. So far, these states include New York, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio and Louisiana. I hope Texas finds the conviction to do the right thing, and soon.
Again, I update my COVID-19 page daily with useful articles. See the Menu; here is the link– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/
Please use the Contact page on the Menu to send me a message, including links to include on my page, or to be informed when I post a new blog.