The Coronavirus
Worldwide, we passed 100 million cases as of Jan. 25.
In the US, January was the deadliest month, so far, in the pandemic. In the past couple weeks, new case and hospitalization numbers in most states started trending downward. Some states are back to levels reported in November—still too high but reduced from December/January. But, the death rate remains 3,000-4,000 per day.
The nation finally had an opportunity to mourn, just before the presidential inauguration, when the death toll stood at 411,000 Americans. COVID-19 Memorial Ceremony at Lincoln Memorial–2 minute video 1/19/21 https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2021/jan/19/biden-and-harris-hold-vigil-for-400000-covid-19-dead-as-bells-toll-across-us-video
Texas surpassed 2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases Jan. 27, just two and a half months after reaching 1 million. The state also added a record 467 fatalities to the virus death toll that day, but that record fell on Jan. 28, with 471 deaths.
Travis County is still reporting out of control new cases, but hospitalizations have dropped. As of Jan. 30, per Gov. Abbott’s misguided rule, area businesses and restaurants returned to 75% occupancy, and elective medical procedures recommenced. Experts warn this guarantees resurgence, as Texas continues its deadly roller coaster ride with Covid.
Some experts think the US is in the very early stages of herd immunity. They assume about 100 million Americans have actually had the virus; for every person testing positive, three more likely had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest. Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot. That means 1/3 of the population has some degree of immunity from the virus, which could be enough to begin slowing the spread. Still a long way to go to get the needed 75-85% of the population immune, and that ignores the mutants….
Covid has, as predicted, mutated. The mutated viruses seem to be more contagious and possibly more deadly than the original. Several variants have been identified, and all have been found in the US.
Vaccinations, the safe path to herd immunity, are still a mess, pretty much everywhere. States complain they don’t get enough doses, but most can’t seem to handle what they do get. In its first week in office, the Biden administration arranged for an additional 16% weekly distribution to the states, as well as committing to provide delivery info to states 3 weeks in advance, to aid scheduling. Also, the federal government has secured 300 million additional doses, to arrive in summer. The Biden administration is solving, one by one, the many logistical problems previously neglected.
As of now, Texas has reportedly received over 3 million doses but only administered about 2 million shots. The state announced in December that everyone 65 and up or with special conditions is eligible for vaccination, expanding the initial eligible group to over 8 million Texans. Unfortunately, the state did not bother to 1) first vaccinate health care workers and senior care residents; 2) make it clear that Texas would not have sufficient vaccine—16 million doses–for all these people FOR MANY MONTHS; or 3) create a central registration/reservation network for shots to be arranged. As a result, “eligible” Texans who can’t arrange a shot are confused, frustrated, outraged and panicked; overall, it is demoralizing. I hope that by the time I am eligible, things are running much more smoothly.
As far as NEW vaccines, there was bad news and pretty good news lately. Both of the Merck vaccines failed early testing and have been cancelled. Novavax says its data won’t be ready until March.
Johnson & Johnson just released preliminary results showing the vaccine was 72% effective in US clinical trials. In South Africa, where the worst of the variants so far known is common, the efficacy rate dropped to 57%. BUT, the vaccine prevented severe illness in 85% of cases overall, and there were NO reported deaths. Experts say that more than compensates for any deficiencies compared to the 2 vaccines approved so far. BONUS—the Johnson & Johnson vaccine only requires ONE SHOT and standard refrigeration, doses will be cheap, and the manufacturer is a major player able to produce the vaccine quickly and in bulk. All of this adds up to a very practical and useful option for the US and elsewhere.
Human decency aside, the rapid development of mutant viruses demonstrates that the ENTIRE WORLD must be vaccinated in order to defeat Covid here at home. Otherwise, the virus will mutate wherever it runs rampant, the mutations will be less susceptible to our vaccines, and everyone becomes vulnerable all over again. Happily, President Biden is having America join COVAX, as well as support the WHO’s international vaccination programs. More and more epidemiologists warn that an upcoming surge is coming in the next few weeks, eclipsing anything seen so far, due to the mutant viruses that we are just starting to see and understand. The best protection is widespread vaccination. Since limited doses are now available, we may have to postpone the recommended second doses, in order to get more people protected as soon as possible. (Additional shots can be administered down the road, and by then the vaccines may well be adjusted to fight a broader range of viruses.) This is something the CDC and Biden administration have resisted, but recent developments may change that very soon. See this Jan. 29 interview of Michael Osterholm, a Biden advisor, for the rationale: Osterholm on COVID variants: We need to understand what’s coming 1/29/21 https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/01/29/osterholm-on-covid-variants-we-need-to-understand-whats-coming
Recent Covid articles I recommend….
–Dr. Fauci unleashed is a very good thing! Fauci on What Working for Trump Was Really Like 1/24/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/health/fauci-trump-covid.html Banished by Trump but Brought Back by Biden, Fauci Aims to ‘Let the Science Speak’ 1/21/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/us/politics/fauci-trump-biden-coronavirus.html
–Amazing compilation of info on all things vaccine, in Q&A form. Save this link; if you don’t need this info now, you will later. Answers to All Your Questions About Getting Vaccinated for Covid-19 1/27/21 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/well/covid-vaccine-questions.html
–Great, now we have mutants to worry about…. Worrisome New Coronavirus Strains Are Emerging. Why Now? 1/27/21 https://www.wired.com/story/worrisome-new-coronavirus-strains-are-emerging-why-now/?fbclid=IwAR1T_dC3tCINy8n_cPkIR5eBHMI-Qt3ZwmfcjeKiA-ifwEGqoGBsCHYw75E
–I love a good podcast, and here are 2 EXCELLENT ones! The Daily podcast has the excellent Donald McNeil clearly explain the current Covid stats today (trend in new cases/hospitalizations/deaths, plus the several mutations, vaccine issues, etc.), in 25 minutes. 1/27/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/podcasts/the-daily/coronavirus-cases-testing-variants-vaccine.html?rref=vanity NYT’s Ezra Klein podcast interviews Dr. Vivek Murthy: “The Man with a Plan to Beat the Pandemic.” Dr. Murthy is Pres. Biden’s nominee for Surgeon General, as well as co-chair of the Biden administration’s coronavirus task force. 90 minutes. (There is a transcript link, to just read it, if desired.) 1/26/21 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-vivek-murthy.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210126&instance_id=26410&nl=the-morning®i_id=122311001&segment_id=50262&te=1&user_id=85e9340cba19164d75f3915211a487be
On the national stage
Jan. 20 Inauguration
It was a hard-won battle, and that made the swearing-in of Biden-Harris all the better. What a relief.… Being able to breathe freely again. Feeling safe again. Having hope again. Competent, compassionate adults are in charge again. Truth is told, experts are respected, intelligence is valued, morals matter again. After four years of hell, America is back.
I think ALL inaugurations should be virtual. It felt like the entire country was experiencing it together, online and via TV, from the morning swearing-in all the way through to the star-studded nationwide evening gala—all beautifully done and a joy to watch.
Impeachment
The trial begins Feb. 8. Over the weekend, Trump’s several attorneys all resigned. (Good for them, and I bet there is an interesting story there….) Wonder if Trump will have to go with Drippy Rudy after all? Maybe Trump will represent himself, spewing out all those unused Twitter posts he has been holding in for weeks now. Or just leave the country before certain state lawsuits against him get even uglier.
Trump and his MAGA rioters must pay for what they did to our Capitol, and by extension to our entire country. Due to the continuing threats of violence from Trump supporters, the war-like fencing will remain indefinitely. Our sacred places may be safer, but they are also changed forever in a very ugly way. THAT is Trump’s legacy.
Brian Sicknick, the Capitol Police Officer who Trump’s mob beat to death on the Capitol steps, will lie in honor in the Rotunda next week. Maybe that will help Republicans in the Senate to put aside their ambitious self-interest and find the honor to stand up for America.
In Lakeway
Updates
To follow up on local issues from last time….
— Everyone’s favorite shortcut was miraculously restored! The parking lot gates opened up just as suddenly as they had been locked. Also, Stratus appealed to Board of Adjustments the requirement to extend Main Street by 2023, but then cancelled the hearing at the last minute. Hmmmm….
—GOOD news for our deer! The Jan. 19 Council meeting was shocking. In a GOOD way.
Remember, last year this time, Council followed the recommendation of the Wildlife Advisory Committee (WAC) and voted to return to culling (via TTT), even though the most recent survey then showed the herd slightly decreasing in size. (They were only stymied in doing so because the city waited too long to get going as far as state permitting and hiring a trapper.)
This time, the wildlife biologist (who has performed all 4 annual surveys) explained the Nov. 2020 results. He counted 15 more deer than in 2019, during the 27 miles driven, which is negligible. The biologist noted that over 4 years, there has been no real difference at all. He stated that there was no need for the city to take any action against the deer. Importantly, he noted the herd is “fat and happy,” definitely not starving or sick. When asked if continued lack of culling would result in a dramatic herd increase, he said no; he thinks the numbers are likely to decrease. Further, when asked what would happen if the city DID remove a large number of deer, he said that because Lakeway lacks boundaries, other deer from outside the area would move into Lakeway to exploit the freed-up resources.
This last point is critical, as it exposes the futility and fiscal irresponsibility of culling, which Lakeway did for nearly 2 decades, mindlessly trapping and killing deer every season, only to have new animals replace them—to be killed next time, on and on. This was explained in 2019 at a WAC meeting by urban wildlife biologist Laura Simon when she made an excellent presentation on humane and sensible methods of dealing with deer. She was ignored and berated by a majority of WAC members, as all were who tried to make suggestions OTHER than killing deer. Importantly, these bullies do NOT include the 2 WAC members at the Jan. 19 Council meeting, data guru Ted Windecker and interim chair Pam Bunn. In addition, the mayor stated that “2 more members” recently resigned from WAC, and the committee lacks quorum to meet.
Finally, Council discussed city stats on deer encounters. Preliminary data shows an increase in carcasses/collisions in 2020. They asked for more details, including the locations, whether fawns or adults, and whether due to vehicles or predators.
So, the good news is that there seems to be no interest in returning to culling our deer. (This could change at any time; a year ago, these same officials voted to cull when the survey showed fewer deer than now.) Annual surveys will continue. WAC needs to be properly staffed; in addition to deer, Lakeway has MANY other wildlife issues they should be handling. Negative deer encounters are being monitored and investigated. If anything needs to be addressed, I hope they refer to Laura Simon’s Humane Society plan for urban deer management and use any available funds for public education and solutions on living with our wildlife.
Go here to watch the Jan. 19 Council meeting online (click on item 10 for the deer) https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/1062/Videos—Meetings-Events
Here is a great article covering this issue: Lakeway revisits controversial deer management program 1/22/21 https://www.statesman.com/story/news/local/lake-travis-view/2021/01/22/lakeway-city-council-has-first-discussion-its-deer-management-program-year/6663575002/
Council has its next meeting on Monday, Feb. 1, 6:30pm.
This is an ONLINE meeting. Lots going on. Go here for the Agenda and Meeting Packet— https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/archive.aspx
Agenda item 10 is re-authorization of a road maintenance tax. This should be routine, funding annual road maintenance. However, it is possible it is something more—such as funding for the city to build the Main Street extension while Stratus delays and/or sues. (The Meeting Packet has the fiscal data copied from the previous item, in error.)
Agenda item 14 is Report on the Main Street Plan. Hmmmm….
Agenda item 13 is the new Rough Hollow development agreement—likely the last review with Council voting yes or no. (For anyone trying to find info in the 400 page meeting packet, scroll down to page 331 for this item.)
This matter was handled very oddly at the last 2 meetings. There was little or no review of each change and discussion of the pros and cons, as happens with similar issues. Since the proposed agreement is taking the place of about 10 previous ones, dating back to 1997, it is not reasonable or even possible for residents to do this on our own. Why isn’t this being done on the dais? We were told the new agreement would simplify and clarify the requirements for Legends to finish development in Rough Hollow in the next few years. We were also told that water quality protections would be increased; I don’t know if that is accurate. We were told that more trees would be protected; I don’t know if that is accurate.
We were told that in some cases Legends would be required to follow CURRENT building ordinances, as opposed to the 1997 ordinances they have been able to follow up to now; I don’t know if that is accurate—and I certainly don’t know what variances are being allowed, so that Legends gets to KEEP the benefits of long-gone lesser standards. For instance, I think Legends should have to follow the 2019 ordinance requiring flat-topped fencing, for the safety of people and wildlife. In 2020, Legends installed extensive open picket metal fencing over the many retaining walls running through The Vineyards (near Lupine School); this was allowed because it was approved in the agreements many years earlier. While there are not that many deer in Rough Hollow, there are a lot of children, who climb retaining walls and fences, so this is a major safety concern.
Overall, it feels like things are being hidden, and that is particularly true as to park land requirements in the original agreement that Legends never bothered to fulfill. What happened to the sports fields? Instead of the promised water access park, the new agreement provides a water view area—that is not the same at all! Plus, the new agreement would let Legends build a ton of extra condos AND a storage facility, even though Lakeway is generally condo-averse and has disallowed storage facilities for years now.
The storage facility in particular seems like a serious negative. Importantly, this facility has been touted all along as for luxury car and wine storage. But, that is NOT what the agreement says. The language is this: “Provide for luxury car suites and/or wine storage or other generally accepted climate-controlled storage uses.” OR OTHER GENERALLY ACCEPTED CLIMATE CONTROLLED STORAGE USES. Around here, nearly all storage facilities are climate controlled, which basically means AC so stuff doesn’t melt in the summer. ANYTHING can be stored. This amounts to no real restrictions on use of this facility. There seems to be this idea that Rough Hollow residents need to store their high-end toys. Well, maybe. But this facility would not be restricted to Rough Hollow owners. It would draw customers—and traffic—from up and down HWY 71. Surely, if some Rough Hollow residents need storage, they can find it already built nearby on 71. I once managed an area storage facility–not for long, as quite frankly I could not stomach it. While things mostly ran smoothly during the day, nights were a very different story. Certain units were highly trafficked at night. (Just sweeping up the parking lot in the mornings was … educational. And sometimes a biohazard.) Also, some units were used as sales venues for the stored items. The contents being stored and sold seemed, in many cases, dubious at best. Despite rules to the contrary, there is every chance that customers would store fireworks, guns, exotic animals, drugs, etc.—and arrange sales on site, as well. All this would be a serious negative for any residential area.
Finally, when residents complained at the last meeting about the new agreement’s lax water quality assurances, a Council member dismissively stated the point of the agreement was to streamline and clean up the jumble of past agreements, NOT to make major changes. Really? Then, why is Legends able to make major changes to its decided benefit—such as building many more condos and the storage facility, both highly lucrative to the developer?
I’m submitting comments for the meeting, and I encourage anyone else with concerns to do so as well.
To send comments to Council beforehand and/or request to speak in person at the meeting (there is a 3pm deadline on the meeting date) about any agenda item, go here and create a Public Comment Form–https://lakeway-tx.civicweb.net/Portal/CitizenEngagement.aspx
Go here to watch this Council meeting online (live or after the fact)— https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/1062/Videos—Meetings-Events
May 1 Lakeway election
Just what we need—another election…. Since Lakeway insists on electing officials in May, we will be voting for mayor and 3 council seats (those now held by council members Vance, Kumar and Howell). Election Day is May 1, but early voting starts April 19. (If you want to vote by mail, you must apply by April 20, but earlier is better.)
To run for one of the vacancies, file an application at City Hall by Feb. 12. Fresh blood is definitely needed….
Want to see who has already filed to run? Need full info on all Lakeway election matters? Go here—https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/427/Election-Information
Back to me….
I’m staying home more than ever now and double-masking if I must go out in public. I work full-time from home anyway, so I’m busy enough. Still, curbside pick-up of books and DVDs at Lake Travis Community Library is a godsend! And, I always have projects to tackle; this weekend, I reorganized my kitchen and laundry room. Plus, my 3 kitty girls keep me happy and sane. Well…. sane-adjacent.
As tends to happen this time of year, the deer have been few and far between lately. Many mornings, I saw NONE on my walks, and my camera has gone unused. So, to celebrate their apparent safety from culling for another year, I will add a few of my favorite deer photos from 2020—bucks only this time. (Bucks are the BEST subjects—unlike timid does and skittish fawns, bucks have no fear and often seem to preen for the camera.)
Panda cub updates:
–Cubbie munches on bamboo for the first time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVBGiUD9bjk&list=PL9S_88he0gqqLkfnxLssmDjgOi5UJjAQW&index=1
–Cubbie gets a sweet treat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaqpeUmvg5M&list=PL9S_88he0gqqLkfnxLssmDjgOi5UJjAQW&index=4