Recent articles I recommend….
–Helpful tips: 7 ways to stay healthy (and sane) during the fall coronavirus surge 10/17/20 https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/health/covid-fall-surge-ways-to-stay-healthy-wellness/index.html
–“Death certificates may record the coronavirus as the cause of death, but in a larger sense vast numbers of Americans died because their government was incompetent.” America and the Virus: ‘A Colossal Failure of Leadership’ 10/22/20 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-united-states.html
–This article demonstrates that it isn’t lockdowns ruining the economy–it is the pandemic. Failing to control COVID dooms our economy, as well as killing us in droves. Iowa Never Locked Down. Its Economy Is Struggling Anyway. 10/22/20 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/business/economy/economy-coronavirus-lockdown-iowa.html
In the US
The news remains dominated by the election and the coronavirus. At this point, the two incendiary issues are impossible to separate.
Regarding COVID, the nasty concept of herd immunity KEEPS popping up. That is due to the White House not only advocating it now as an option but leaking clues this is nothing new. For months, I have suspected this was the Trump administration default strategy. It explains their do-nothing approach, as well as their interference with any state or local official who DOES try to stop COVID. That is why they ignored medical experts and politicized masks/social distancing, and why Trump and others have insisted for MONTHS that it is going away, we are turning the corner, and there is no reason to be afraid. This, despite America having lost over 230,000 people–more deaths than any other country in the entire world. Now, the White House is finally to the point of admitting this is policy. No lockdowns, no closures, no testing, no contact tracing, no masks, no social distancing—just pretend all is well.
For example, just today, several members of the vice-president’s immediate staff tested positive, but Pence will continue campaigning throughout the nation this coming week, rather than isolate per CDC guidelines for those exposed. Truly, with all the rallies (with no masks or social distancing) in the very states currently surging with new cases and full hospitals, the Trump campaign is actively spreading COVID-19. Cheap, easy, deeply stupid, with zero regard for human life—herd immunity has Trump written all over it.
This article sets out the White House endorsement of herd immunity, which seems to rest largely on the advice of Dr. Scott Atlas, the radiologist who Trump discovered on Fox News and ensconced on the Coronavrus Task Force in place of actual epidemiology experts Drs. Fauci and Birx. White House embraces a declaration from scientists that opposes lockdowns and relies on ‘herd immunity.’ 10/13/20 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/world/white-house-embraces-a-declaration-from-scientists-that-opposes-lockdowns-and-relies-on-herd-immunity.html
Of course, medical experts worldwide—epidemiologists, immunologists, infectious disease specialists, virologists, and physicians in the trenches treating COVID patients—vociferously condemn herd immunity as reckless, futile, inhumane, based on a fallacy, and likely to result in MILLIONS of needlessly dead Americans. Why is that?
–Even people in low-risk groups can suffer serious damage to heart, lungs, or other organs. Children are not invulnerable; some develop an inflammatory syndrome that can be fatal. A growing group of survivors remain ill to some extent for many months. We don’t begin to understand the long-term effects of even mild cases of this new disease.
–HOW are we supposed to protect the old and the vulnerable, with society fully open and no precautions taken generally?
–Herd immunity, in the history of the world and its myriad diseases, has NEVER been achieved without the benefit of a vaccine. So, assuming how it would work with COVID-19 is just guesswork.
–One ugly guess is how many people would need to get (and survive) COVID, before we approach herd immunity. The usual estimate is 60-80% of the population. To date, about 8% of Americans have been infected. So, the goal is to do the last few months again and again—9 more times—and see what happens then?
–Another ugly guess is the death toll. Most experts say millions of Americans would die, if this experiment proceeds. Of course, minorities have been disproportionately hard-hit so far, and that would continue.
–The horrific process of trying to achieve herd immunity would max out our medical system–over-flowing hospitals, exhausting supplies of everything from PPE to steroids and other palliative drugs, and compromising medical personnel. The result of that havoc would be excess deaths. Remember when a stated goal of bending the curve was to avoid overwhelming hospitals, to minimize deaths?
–Herd immunity requires that those who recover get long-term immunity. That is NOT the case with many viruses, such as regular flu and the common cold. Although rare so far, re-infection IS being seen with COVID-19, even at this early stage.
But, don’t believe me. Here are several articles, from a variety of respected sources, detailing the horrors of herd immunity. Take your pick.
—Herd Immunity? Or ‘Mass Murder’? 10/19/20 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/opinion/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
—We cannot rely on magical thinking: Herd immunity is not a plan 10/16/20 https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/16/we-cannot-rely-on-magical-thinking-herd-immunity-is-not-a-plan/?utm_content=buffer06023&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=facebook_organic&fbclid=IwAR31l3xA5N-OoU6ecnolpCvuNvY9WJo4Noo_WgmIoqJDFJdKj_PMSN90c58
—Fauci Attacks Herd Immunity Declaration Embraced By White House As ‘Total Nonsense’ 10/15/20 https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/10/15/fauci-attacks-herd-immunity-declaration-embraced-by-white-house-as-total-nonsense/#17d4791e458d
—THE JOHN SNOW MEMORANDUM: ongoing project originally published in The Lancet 10-14-22. This is the rebuttal to The Great Barrington Declaration. Here, in an ongoing collaboration, medical experts condemn the herd immunity strategy. https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/
—Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now: Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed 10/15/20 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext
—A Viral Theory Cited by Health Officials Draws Fire From Scientist 10/19/20 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/health/coronavirus-great-barrington.html
—Atlas, Paul Mislead on Preexisting COVID-19 ‘Immunity’ 10/13/20 https://www.factcheck.org/2020/10/atlas-paul-mislead-on-preexisting-covid-19-immunity/?fbclid=IwAR32inN1AdSL3M5x57ZCyUFPfUKY9JBe3WwKT_6HnlzGWZW_HZqNiXKaWU0
—Letting COVID-19 spread to achieve herd immunity is “unethical,” WHO chief says 10/13/20 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-herd-immunity-unethical-world-health-organization/
The ELECTION—coming soon….
The election is just over a week away. Finally! The second and last debate curbed the worst impulses of our combative president (though he still lied like a rug), allowing Biden to set out clear policy on things like COVID response, foreign interference in our elections, immigration reform, and climate change. Plans, goals, policy—sounds like someone knows how to govern. Refreshing!
On a lighter note, here are 2 politically inspired but super-fun musical numbers.
Beauty and the Beast tunes up for the pandemic. “Try not to be so grouchy, have some faith in Fauci, wear a mask, wear a mask, wear a mask!” https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1317690911174905857?s=21&fbclid=IwAR3-ZxzgRmDMiszy1VosvoE_FC2K2V-WfIXFqTGFCHu_A8IdeKMT3tAHKMs
This lyrical take on Evita may be the BEST ad yet from The Lincoln Project. Covita–“I broke my promise, won’t keep my distance…. Don’t cry for me, Secret Service….” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tZVnbDq9B4
In Texas
78% of eligible voters statewide are registered for the current election. Amazingly, of the 850,000 eligible voters in Travis County, 97% are registered (breaking all records).
A record turnout for voting is expected in Texas, possibly as high as 75-80% of eligible voters; 65% voted in 2016.
Already, over 7 million votes have been cast in Texas—more than in any other state. With another week of early voting still to go, that amounts to 80% of the TOTAL votes cast in 2016 (including election day). Whether standing in line to vote early or mailing in ballots, Texans are making a political statement.
In Lakeway
Early voting ends Oct. 30. Our location is Lakeway Activity Center, next to City Hall on Cross Creek. This site shows you the current wait time for any Travis County polling place. https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/elections/wait-time-map.html
If you requested and received a mail-in ballot but prefer to vote in person, be sure to take your mail-in ballot. A special clerk at the start of the voting process will have you sign a paper to cancel the mail-in ballot, and then you proceed to vote normally.
The election includes SEVEN propositions for Lakeway voters. See my previous blog for details on these propositions. (I voted YES on all of them, except for Proposition C. That one would extend successive terms of service by local officials from the current 2 terms to 3 terms. That is a change from 4 years to 6 years straight, and up to 7 years if someone served a partial term; that seems excessive. I voted NO on Prop C.)
If you are still looking to receive your mail-in ballot OR want to track the status of a ballot you already mailed back, go here— https://votetravis.com/vexpress/submit.do Scroll down to Voter LookUp near the bottom. Add name and birth date (you can skip the unique identifier). Select BBM Status (Ballot By Mail). It will tell you the status of your ballot. For info or help–Travis County Tax Office Voter Registration Division 512-854-9473.
Ballots can be mailed in (with voters urged to do so as early as possible) or dropped off at approved sites; there is ONLY 1 approved site per county. The Travis County site is out by the airport. (Voters must drop off completed ballots IN PERSON and show ID. Voters in Texas CANNOT drop off mail-in ballots at polling places.)
Council, at its Oct. 19 in-person meeting, accepted the initial report from its Economic Advisory Committee. Suggestions included making Lakeway friendlier to business, creating an annual signature event, and taking advantage of the coming 620 reno to “reshape the corridor.” All this is to be managed by a new standing Economic Development Committee. Details were sparse. Among other things, Council also 1) adopted the Thoroughfare Plan discussed previously; 2) awarded $50,000 in HOT funds to the second annual Lake Travis Film Festival; and 3) directed the City Manager to create Lakeway’s Coronovirus Relief Program and sign the Interlocal Agreement to accept CARES Act funds for it from Travis County. Go here to watch this Council meeting online— https://lakewaytx.new.swagit.com/videos/87344
The next Council meeting is billed as a Work Session, on Nov. 2. Online only or in-person? Who knows….
Finally, Mayor Cox, in her Oct. 22 Facebook Live talk, stated the western segment of the Main Street extension will break ground in 2021. This is the Legends segment branching off Lohmans opposite The Hills entrance. Unfortunately, the missing center segment (behind HEB and on land still owned by Stratus) is very problematic. It was announced at a recent Council meeting that Stratus never signed the agreement to build this segment of road, so all the city can do is try to leverage cooperation via the PUD, which has not worked so far. Likely, a lawsuit will be required. As the mayor mentioned, it would be disastrous if Main Street is not completed by the time 620 is shut down for widening and long-term restructuring, which could happen as early as 2022. In addition, she teased a coming re-statement of the Rough Hollow development agreement.
Back to me….
I voted mid-morning the first Thursday of early voting and only had a short wait. VERY happy to get that done!
Maxie got a good report on her blood work, so all is well.
My back yard, even though tiny, has vexed me since moving into St. Andrews in 2018, and I finally gave up on handling it myself. Weeds, dirt, bugs, snakes—ugh, no thanks. A wonderful yard service spent an afternoon hacking back the overgrowth and then a full day re-doing the tattered ground covering and replacing the variegated mulch and pebbles with lovely slate gravel. Now, instead of cursing every time I look out there, I grin.
Our deer continue to post for close-ups, but a couple squirrels nearly upstaged them.
Here are a two new baby panda video updates. What a chunky cutie!
—The Baby Panda Is Now Crawling and Barking and Packing on the Pounds 10/15/20 https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/10/15/the-baby-panda-is-now-crawling-and-barking-and-eating-fruitsicles/?fbclid=IwAR01H_DPBBTzjqJPhr79ugoL-4S29bVnsBcZJth4WSj4MtC4OILz6cnWMFQ
—The National Zoo’s Baby Panda Is Two Months Old and Cuter Than Ever 10/23/20 https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/10/23/baby-panda-national-zoo-is-two-months-old/
Perspective is key…..
Worldwide, many countries are preoccupied with COVID flare-ups, but at least America provided comic relief with shockingly poor handling of the pandemic while running the least democratic election in the history of our supposed democracy.
In the US, another COVID surge is the worst October surprise of all. We exceeded 8 million cases on Oct. 12. The total will go over 9 million any day now.
In October, the rise in cases was steady, and then it spiked last week. The U.S. topped 65,000 new cases on Thursday, Oct. 22. This was the highest tally since the July peak. It was immediately followed by over 85,000 new cases on Oct. 23. In the spring, heavy cases were concentrated in the northeast. Summer infections raged in the south and west. Now, the outbreaks are scattered in pockets across the country, often in rural areas with limited medical resources.
Hospitalizations rose 40% in October. So far, over 500,000 Americans have been hospitalized. Those who survive face heavy medical bills; even if they have insurance, many are seeing surprise big-ticket billing items.
Death counts are flat so far, but this lagging indicator is sure to rise soon.
In Texas, last week’s new daily cases were nearly as high as back in August. Hospitalizations continue to climb. As of Oct. 23, over 5,000 Texans were hospitalized, up from 3,600 on Oct. 11.
Hot spots include Dallas, El Paso, Amarillo and Lubbock. Austin and Travis County show numbers among the lowest in the state, so far.