Nina–write or wrong in Lakeway

This article gave me chills, in the sense of explaining some of the disconnect I have noticed—in myself and definitely in others—as the pandemic washes over us all.

Almost 90,000 dead and no hint of national mourning. Are these deaths not ‘ours’?  5/15/20 https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/national-mourning-coronavirus/2020/05/15/b47fc670-9577-11ea-82b4-c8db161ff6e5_story.html

As always, my Covid-19 page has links to articles added daily, on all aspects of the pandemic.

In Texas

Last week, the state attorney general attacked local officials for promoting social distancing and wearing masks, despite their orders scrupulously following the governor’s ludicrous mandate of no penalties allowed.  As Travis County and Austin officials noted, sickness and death in the community is penalty enough to encourage reasonable people to avoid reckless behavior and instead take precautions.  AG Paxton also appealed a court order that allowed those vulnerable to infection by COVID-19 to vote by mail.  So, pending a decision by the Texas Supreme Court, people will have to decide if voting is worth the risk.  The next election is a primary run-off in July, but the big issue will arise with the presidential election in November.

Here in Lakeway….

Suddenly, the fact that the lion’s share of city revenue comes from property tax, as opposed to sales tax, is a huge boon, instead of the problem certain pro-development officials tried to make it in the past.  Budget projections at the last Council meeting were quite rosy.  The city will benefit from stable revenue, compared to places like Bee Cave which live off of sales tax and will suffer major revenue losses.  Maybe Lakeway officials will remember this lesson and not rush to approve more and more retail, office and restaurant space we do not need and cannot support.

Also, going back to the Charter Review Committee’s presentation at the May 4 Council meeting (discussed in detail in last week’s blog)….  Chair DeOme seemed vexed that certain council members questioned the committee’s decisions.  Personally, I was surprised the term “decisions” was used, as opposed to “recommendations.”  The committee has no power to decide anything and is purely advisory; its mandate was to review the Charter and suggest changes to Council.  As for the most important issues raised (all involving election rules), my take is we fix the fact our charter currently violates the Texas constitution, by reverting to 2 year terms in at-large elections.  The alternative of changing to 3 year terms (as the committee “decided” we should do) requires adopting a meaningless and easily gamed place system that would make Lakeway’s elections even more fraught than they already are.  Plus, that requires changing from plurality results to majority required, with the distinct possibility of an expensive run-off election each time.  Those evils far outweigh the small benefit of stability that comes with 3 year terms. 

Also, as to timing, Lakeway should switch to November for local elections, in order to encourage voter turnout and end the old guard’s control of the results.  (The city attorney confirmed this would be a SEPARATE ballot issue, so there is no worry it would confuse voters on the primary goal of bringing our charter into compliance with the Texas constitution.)  As a bonus, the city would save money by holding just 1 election each year, instead of 2.  Plus, with terms starting in November, new council members would have 7 months to acclimate before facing budget season, as opposed to 1 month for anyone elected in May.  And, anyone who thinks Lakeway’s elections are not ALREADY tainted by partisan politics isn’t paying attention.

Finally, the charter should be amended on a couple items relating to committee appointments.  First, having been sanctioned for an ethics violation should disqualify someone from serving on a committee; even volunteers should be held to that minimal standard. Second, committee appointments seem to be handed out as thank yous for campaign contributions; that needs to stop.    

Council meets Monday night, May 18.  If you want to comment, you must arrange it beforehand, per the instructions at the top of the agenda. Go here for the agenda and meeting packet—https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/archive.aspx

Go here to watch online, live or after the fact—https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/1062/Videos—Meetings-Events

Back to me….

My build-a-bookcase project is DONE!

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This week, I will work on spring cleaning and hope to start another painting project.

Today is Peanut’s 4^th anniversary of joining the family.  Catnip was enjoyed by all….

Perspective is key, and it helps to see what changed in the last week. 

A week ago (May 10), there were 4,180,137 confirmed cases and 283,852 deaths. As of today, there are 4,798,135 confirmed cases and 316,507 deaths.

In the US, a week ago there were 1,367,638 confirmed cases and 80,787 deaths. Today, there are 1,526,816 confirmed cases and 90,973 deaths.

In Texas, a week ago there were 38,869 confirmed cases and 1,088 deaths.  Today, there are 47,784 confirmed cases and 1,336 deaths. Note that on Saturday, Texas had more new cases than ever reported (1,801).  And, on Thursday and Friday, the daily death counts were the highest ever (58 and 56).

In Travis County, a week ago there were 2,127 confirmed cases and 60 deaths. Today, there are 2,459 confirmed cases and 77 deaths.

A week ago, we had 33 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.  Today, we have 38 confirmed cases.

Things I wonder about:

–By how many years (decades?) will the 620 widening project through Lakeway be delayed?

–Instead of the much-publicized Thunderbird flyover, wouldn’t donating the funds spent on that stunt (perhaps toward PPE, medical costs of personnel who caught COVID-19, and scholarships for kids of personnel who died from it) have been a far more useful homage to medical workers?

–If it is so safe to open up businesses and restaurants (even gyms and pools in Texas as of May 18) and with people officially encouraged to be out and about now, why are all government buildings still closed tight, with officials attending meetings safely from home?

I came across a couple articles last week that are particularly helpful in understanding the pandemic–how it has developed and how it is likely to continue over the next several months or longer.  If interested, here they are:

–Why the Coronavirus Is So Confusing  4/29/20 https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200505&instance_id=18228&nl=the-morning&regi_id=122311001&segment_id=26626&te=1&user_id=85e9340cba19164d75f3915211a487be

–Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis  5/1/20 https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/three-potential-futures-for-covid-19/?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200505&instance_id=18228&nl=the-morning&regi_id=122311001&segment_id=26626&te=1&user_id=85e9340cba19164d75f3915211a487be

As always, my Covid-19 page has links to articles added daily, on all aspects of the pandemic.

Texas craziness….

Republican-governed states opened up with abandon, despite failing to show promise as far as curbing the disease or improving their scant testing.  Texas charged ahead.  Gov. Abbott dropped any show of waiting to see if his May 1 opening of other businesses caused a surge in cases; he allowed salons to open May 8, with gyms following on May 18.  That pretty much leaves only bars and entertainment centers closed for now.   

Speaking of salons, the owner of an upscale salon in Dallas decided to open back in April—because she felt entitled to do so.  She was repeatedly cited by police; she mouthed off to the judge and tore up her citation, which got her fined and sentenced to 7 days in jail for contempt.  But, then somebody’s PR machine kicked into overdrive.  Somehow, this wealthy, middle-aged woman was portrayed as a desperate mother trying to feed her kids.  Enough people bought into the lies to net her Go Fund Me campaign over $500,000.  (She already received federal relief funds for her business.)  Dan Patrick, the Texas Lt. Governor who previously volunteered his generation to die of COVID-19  in order to save the economy for the grandkids, paid her fine.  And Gov. Abbott did two crazy things.  First, he issued a blistering attack on the Dallas police and court system for daring to punish a business owner trying to make ends meet; he totally glossed over the fact that it was HIS order that closed her business AND that specified the fine and jail sentence for those violating the order.  Second, he amended his order to state that NO AUTHORITY could jail anyone in Texas deciding not to abide by the order.  So much for rule of law.  Some closure rules remain, but according to the governor himself, there is no penalty for anyone declining to follow them.   Only in Texas….

Here in Lakeway….

City Council broached a controversial topic at its May 4 meeting.  Held online, with the same restrictive citizen participation scheme used since March, the meeting featured a report by the Charter Review Committee (CRC).  Chair Dave DeOme droned on quite a while with committee recommendations; members Todd Buikema and Tom Kilgore spoke very briefly on a couple points.  A key thing to understand is the CRC’s primary task is fixing the city’s current election statutes, which violate the Texas constitution.   Back in 2014 (oddly enough, when DeOme was mayor and current Mayor Sandy Cox was on Council) the city decided to amend its charter to extend the terms of the mayor and council members from 2 to 3 years.  Charter amendments must be approved by voters, which happened in November of 2014.  The problem is that the Texas Constitution requires (back then and now) that when local officials are elected for longer than 2 years, a candidate must win by majority vote, instead of just plurality vote, and it requires use of a place system.  Lakeway’s new rules didn’t cover any of that, making them unconstitutional.  Somehow, this didn’t come to light until 2018. (Officials blamed the city’s lawyer for everything.)  Since then, Lakeway has limped along under its OLD rules (2 year terms, etc.) as best it can, and will try to fix the gaffe when legally allowed to do so–in the November, 2020 election. 

DeOme basically said that since voters approved 3 year terms in 2014, we should implement that now by putting majority required, run-off elections as needed, and the place system on the November ballot.   Assuming the measure passes, all would be well.  BUT, not so fast.  In 2014, voters only agreed to 3 year terms.  The complicated place system required to implement that would completely change the city’s electoral scheme.  In addition to possible run-off elections (both expensive and time-consuming), candidates would be able to pick the place they felt better about winning, potentially gaming the system.  The alternative is simply returning to 2-year terms.  Sure, there is more turnover, but that is far better than a place system.

The term issue aside, the CRC also reviewed the charter as a whole and recommended many other changes, some minor and some major.  One major change is election-related and has to do with WHEN elections are held.  Everyone knows that elections happen on Tuesday in November, right?   Not in Lakeway, which traditionally elects local officials in May.  Why?  Because the low voter turnout that the odd timing guarantees makes it easy for the city’s old guard to control the outcome.  (For example, in May of 2018, only 18% of registered voters showed up to vote for the mayor and 3 council seats.)  Curing that low voter turnout is the best possible reason to move city elections to November, when state and federal election are held and voters are engaged and far more likely to bother to show up to vote.  Another excellent reason to have Lakeway’s elections in November is money; Lakeway must hold elections in November for state and federal contests, so having city elections in May doubles the cost.  Finally, electing officials in May means they immediately face the summer budget process; if elected in November, they would have an additional 6 months to learn the system before tackling arguably the most important and complex part of the job.  May election proponents tried to argue that in November the din of state and federal elections would drown out city matters, and that city elections should be kept apart from partisan elections.  (Like all the “social clubs” here don’t tell members how to vote!) The city attorney made it clear that if the May/November election issue is put on the ballot, it would be separate from the term issue and so would not interfere with fixing Lakeway’s constitutional problem.  Not surprisingly, it came out that this was the most contentious issue the CRC encountered.  Also, the euphemism “robust discussion” got quite a workout Monday night….

Nothing much was decided at the Council meeting.  CRC is to work with the city attorney to draft language covering the various options.  The attorney is to seek guidance from state officials.   City staff is to collect voter turnout statistics for recent May and November elections. 

To watch the meeting’s recording, go to link below, click on City Council, and then choose the May 4 meeting.  Scroll down on the left to item 5–Presentation from charter review committee. https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/1062/Meeting-Videos—Council-ZAPCO

To better understand the discussion, access the companion materials by clicking on the link below, scrolling down for City Council Meeting Packet, and selecting May 4.  The Charter Review information is near the top of the resulting PDF. https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/archive.aspx

Back to me….

My build-a-bookcase project continues.  Last week, I painted the old wine boxes.  (I’m using gorgeous blue paint left over from last fall’s project, when I painted my front door.)  The boxes still need a second coat. 

Also, I put on my mask and zipped out to HEB for perishables last week.  As usual, mid-morning on a weekday was a calm time there, with no crowding or waiting.  I was happy to see everyone wearing masks.  If a business wants my money now, they need to require all employees and customers to wear masks, to reduce the chance of infection for everyone. 

Plus, I cut my hair, not just trimming up the front—all around.  It may not look terrific from the back, but the cats haven’t said a word.  And, now I don’t have to risk getting sick to avoid shaggy hair in Texas summer heat.

I STILL haven’t seen a parked newborn fawn in person, but I do appreciate all the sweet photos and videos posted online by the lucky folks.

Happy Mother’s Day!  My daughter called, and my best friend sent a cat-themed care package; she knows me well, and truly that is the best gift of all.

Perspective is key, and it helps to see what changed in the last week. 

A week ago (May 3), there were 3,563,335 confirmed cases and 248,135 deaths. As of today, there are 4,180,137 confirmed cases and 283,852 deaths.

In the US, a week ago there were 1,187,768 confirmed cases and 68,587 deaths. Today, there are 1,367,638 confirmed cases and 80,787 deaths.

In Texas, a week ago there were 31,548 confirmed cases and 867 deaths.  Today, there are 38,869 confirmed cases and 1,088 deaths.

In Travis County, a week ago there were 1,756 confirmed cases and 52 deaths. Today, there are 2127 confirmed cases and 60 deaths.

A week ago, we had 26 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.  Today, we have 33 confirmed cases.

Things I wonder about:

–On the world stage, at least since WWII, it used to be “the ugly Americans,” as we pushed our way into every situation and took charge, for better or worse. Now, it is “the stupid Americans,” as we completely and very publicly fail at handling each and every aspect of this pandemic, from preparedness, to testing, to lockdown, to opening up.  Just how far can America fall?

–Will the emerging risk to children posed by COVID-19 change things, as opposed to the current acceptance of risk to older and compromised people?

–Is it just me, or is having to wipe down groceries with disinfectant before putting them away the MOST ANNOYING THING EVER?

–Is it time to turn on my sprinklers?

Texas opened up for the economy on May 1.  Gov. Abbott’s Phase 1 allows pretty much everything except salons, gyms and bars to be up and running, limited to 25% occupancy (for 2 weeks, then ramping up to 100%).   And, the governor has hinted that even salons, gyms and bars will be green-lit very soon.  As rash as all this is, it might have been workable, except that his order specified that masks are NOT required. 

Here in Travis County, people were comfortable with the mask requirement.  Experts say masks decrease infection, particularly at the early stage before people realize they have the virus.  Now, masks are voluntary, and we know how that plays out.  Back in March, Abbott excused his failure to issue a state-wide order on the grounds that local mayors and judges were in the best position to know what their areas needed.  Now, he has declared that local authorities may NOT create rules varying from his new order, about masks or anything else virus-related.   

However, a business MAY require customers to wear masks (just like they can require customers to wear shirts and shoes).  Any time I am required to be out and about in the foreseeable future, I will only patronize businesses that REQUIRE MASKS.

Opening up now is rash in Texas, based on our statistics on confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.  Even the rather lax federal guidelines for opening up (requiring cases and deaths trending down for a period of 2 weeks) have not been met.   Instead, we are continuing a trend of over 1,000 new confirmed cases each day.  Also, the total number of Texans hospitalized reached record levels several days last week; previously in the 1400s and 1500s, the number ranged from 1682 to 1778.  And, on April 30, 50 Texans died of COVID-19–more than any other day to date.   

Clearly, opening up now isn’t based on our medical situation.  Instead, it is based on economics, specifically reducing the unemployment benefits to furloughed workers and the special payments to idle businesses.   If it is somehow safe enough for most businesses to re-open now, why are state offices, Capitol Building, Governor’s Mansion, etc. not included in Abbott’s order?   And, it isn’t just Texas—the hypocrisy extends to Washington, DC, with government buildings closed and the House of Representatives refusing to return to work for safety reasons.  Even Lakeway continues to keep city buildings closed to the public; tomorrow’s Council meeting will be held online.

Back to me….

For anyone curious about how my experiment with freezing a gallon jug of milk went—it turned out just fine.   The bulge that developed near the bottom of the jug isn’t leaking.  The milk tastes normal.  The printed expiration date was April 29.  I bought and froze it on April 14 and thawed it on April 28; I should be able to use it now for a full 2 weeks.  I WAS surprised by how long it took to thaw—3 full days, & even well after that it had slushy portions. 

My current project is building a bookcase.  The former owners of my house left behind some wooden wine boxes, and they are the perfect size.  I sanded and primed them this weekend. 

Other than that, I continue working full-time online from home, with stellar oversight from my 3 feline supervisors.  At some point, I’m going to have to start on spring cleaning ….

Perspective is key, and it helps to see what changed in the last week.

A week ago (April 26), worldwide, there were 2,994,436 confirmed cases and 206,973 deaths.  As of today (May 3), there are 3,563,335 confirmed cases and 248,135 deaths.

In the US, a week ago there were 987,160 confirmed cases and 55,413 deaths.  Today, there are 1,187,768 confirmed cases and 68,587 deaths.

In Texas, a week ago there were 24,631 confirmed cases and 648 deaths.  Today, there are 31,548  confirmed cases and 867 deaths.

In Travis County, a week ago there were 1,412  confirmed cases and 39 deaths. Today, there are 1,756 confirmed cases and 52 deaths.

A week ago, we had 26 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.  Today, we have 26 cases (no change).

Things I wonder about:

–How did I get paint get THERE?

–How long can I let my car sit in the garage without driving it, without ending up with a dead battery?

–When will I see my first parked fawn of the season?

Now, there is pressure to “open up the country” because we must save the economy.  That pressure came last week from continued demonstrations of very suspect origins by unmasked idiots violating social distancing.  It also came in much more subtle form–social media groups banning COVID-19 discussion.  This was couched as giving members a break from stressful subjects, but I suspect it is really an attempt to pave the way to open businesses; after all, consumers will be more likely to venture out if the virus has been removed from their online conversations. 

Oddly, those demanding a “return to normal” largely misunderstand what happened in the last couple months. Closure orders didn’t kill the economy; the economic crisis happened because people were afraid that going to restaurants, gyms, malls, movies, etc. would make them sick.  They are still afraid of that–and rightly so.  In Texas, testing remains abysmally low (around 48 states have done better), which means we don’t know the true numbers on infections here, and there is no process in place to trace the inevitable flare ups.  Yet, Gov. Abbott already allowed both retail to-go and discretionary medical procedures last week, with widespread business openings to be announced tomorrow.  (This is despite the fact Texas had more COVID-19 hospitalizations last week than ever before.)  Interestingly, Abbott made it clear that schools and universities will NOT open for the rest of the school year.  That tells me it is not safe to be out in public mingling now; if it isn’t safe for schools and universities, then it isn’t safe in general. 

According to polls, the general public doesn’t think it is time to open up.  Whatever openings are announced by special interest-owned politicians in Texas and nationwide,  it will likely change very little of day-to-day life, to the vast disappointment of the “give me liberty or give me death” crowd.  (My answer to that argument is—good news for you, with a pandemic you get BOTH liberty AND death.  Me, I’m waiting it out.)  Open or closed, if the public doesn’t feel safe, they will stay home.  And, as I can attest–we’re getting pretty good at coping (without doing anything stupid with bleach or Lysol products.)  I’m not interested in being sacrificed to the next wave of infection just to bump up local business sales, and I will continue staying at home until respected medical opinion based on well-documented statistics tells me it is safe to do otherwise.

Also, I really don’t appreciate the condescending responses I’m seeing to those sharing my viewpoint, that go something like this—“Sure, if you can afford it, but other people face tough choices.”  Really?  How dare anyone assume others don’t have tough choices or nightmarish consequences from the pandemic.  People may have different circumstances, but none of this is easy.  Whether it is a lost job, failed business, gutted savings, children home from school indefinitely, being a health care worker now, having a loved one isolated indefinitely in a care facility, those actually suffering from COVID-19, those with deceased loved ones they cannot even bury normally, or some other horrific permutation—everyone is in a bad place now.  And, frankly, I’ve heard enough about how small businesses are suffering.  Billions of dollars in government aid is being funneled to them (not quickly or efficiently, but still, it is coming).  Where is the government bail-out for seniors whose retirement savings were destroyed?  Or for all the other tragic losses this virus has inflicted?

On a lighter note

I recommend Ken Herman’s humorous recent column —  

https://today.statesman.com/express/thursday–april-23–2020/15?utm_source=express-edition&utm_medium=email

And also Leonard Pitts’ brilliant “I will not die of stupid” piece–

https://www.statesman.com/opinion/20200426/pitts-i-will-not-die-of-stupid

I bought 5 masks made of solid fabric and they are SO boring. I plan to write mottos to live by on them.  Here are the finalists so far:

— I will not die of stupid

–I love Dr. Fauci

–You thought this would be a FUN pandemic?

–If you think injecting bleach will help you, go right ahead

Perspective is key, and it helps to see what changed in the last week.  (I’m showing the same figures on COVID-19 cases/deaths as previous weeks, but I’m changing the format, for clarity.)

A week ago (April 19), worldwide, there were 2,407,255 confirmed cases and 165,047 deaths.  As of today (April 26), there are 2,994,436 confirmed cases and 206,973 deaths.

In the US, a week ago there were 764,303 confirmed cases and 40,548 deaths.  Today, there are 987,160 confirmed cases and 55,413 deaths.

In Texas, a week ago there were 18,923 confirmed cases and 477 deaths.  Today, there are 24,631 confirmed cases and 648 deaths.

In Travis County, a week ago there were 1108 confirmed cases and 25 deaths. Today, there are 1,412  confirmed cases and 39 deaths.

A week ago, we had 26 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.  Today, we have 26 cases (no change).

Things I wonder about

–How long until my cat, Tulip, needs another depo shot?  (She usually gets them around the 2 month mark, and her last one was Feb. 10.)

–How will thawing my frozen milk jug turn out this coming week?

–Will this be one of those 100-days-over-100-degrees summers in Central Texas, or just a regular hellishly hot summer?

I update my COVID-19 page daily with useful articles.  See the Menu for that page; here is the link– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

This week, people got fed up with the shutdown.  Actually, they were TOLD to be fed up with it, by the White House and various conspiracy nutbars.  COVID-19 stats failed to improve, with confirmed cases and deaths rising, yet at the federal level there was a sudden impatience and demand to reopen the country.  Public demonstrations in some states followed—with the demonstrators’ lack of good sense and common decency exemplified by their lack of face masks and social distancing; in some cases, they even blocked emergency vehicles and hospital entrances.  And certain governors began opening up their states, without coronavirus numbers justifying it.  Yes, the unemployment numbers are appalling, but they are completely expected.  No one promised this would be a fun pandemic.  Shutting down all but essential services and keeping people home does seem to be flattening the curve, but it has not stopped the virus.  What we are doing is working; that is reason to CONTINUE doing it—NOT stop precautions to go “back to normal.”  Only the politically asinine could believe that is a workable option. 

In Texas, we are getting used to wearing masks.  Education remains shut down through the school year. Overall, the required closures in Texas are relatively lax, compared to other states taking this seriously; “essential” means whatever people want it to mean, here.  Yet, Gov. Abbott just announced that next week state parks will open, the ban on medical procedures will relax, and ALL retail stores can reopen for to go/delivery services.  Plus, more openings are promised soon.  Since Texas remains dead last in testing among US states, we lack a firm grasp on COVID-19 here, but the confirmed Texas cases/hospitalizations/deaths we DO know about don’t justify opening up the state anytime soon.  The sole justification seems to be that Gov. Abbott is a Republican, and his puerile boss says it is time to open up.            

Lakeway City Council has another online meeting tomorrow night (April 20, 6:30pm).  The agenda and meeting packet are available in tabs on this page– https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/archive.aspx  The mayor is appointing Chairman Ron Massa, Larry Harlan and Tom Woodard as her 3-man Economic Development Committee; their meetings will be closed to the public.  Legends has 2 agenda items, both final plat approvals for all the building in Rough Hollow they are getting done during the crisis—luxury homes being “essential,” to them, at least.  Plus, another senior living center is up for approval just past Rough Hollow on Bee Creek Road near 71.  There are several other matters, as well.  Anyone wanting to participate must email the city and make arrangements beforehand, by 3pm that day, and will be allowed to phone in a 3 minute comment.  Watch live as usual; the recording will also be available.  https://www.lakeway-tx.gov/1062/Videos—Meetings-Events

As for me, I’m trying to go shopping less frequently for perishables.  To keep from going out every 10-14 days for milk, I bought 2 gallons last week and put 1 jug in the freezer.  (Google said freezing milk is fine, as long as you remove some milk to allow for expansion.  I did that, but there is still a large bulging lump near the bottom of the frozen jug that will be worrisome when it thaws….)  Also, I had the pest control guy come out to spray all around outside the house, in hopes all the scary creatures will stay outside. 

Perspective is key. 

A week ago (April 12), these were the numbers on COVID-19, cases/deaths:

Worldwide                             US                              Texas                         Travis Co.

1,851,734/114,179           560,402/22,105    13,484/271            774/9

There were 21 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.

Today’s numbers (April 19):

Worldwide                             US                              Texas                         Travis Co.

2,407,255/165,047      764,303/40,548   18,923/477           1108/25

There are 26 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.

Things I wonder about….

–Why can’t America in general and Texas in particular get with the program as far as testing?  And, how dare the politicians just give up on that integral component, as they now sacrifice health in the mad rush to shore up the economy?  Experts at Harvard say the minimum COVID-19 DAILY testing rate to safely reopen is 152 per 100,000 people, to allow those infected to be identified and their contacts tested as well.  In the US, the current daily testing rate is 45, while in Texas the rate is 27.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200419&instance_id=17774&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=122311001&segment_id=25500&te=1&user_id=85e9340cba19164d75f3915211a487be

–How do the workers at HEB stay so cheery?

–Has anyone seen a newborn fawn parked in Lakeway yet?  (My Deer page has photos from last spring.)

I update my COVID-19 page daily with useful articles.  See the Menu for that page; here is the link– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

It was an eventful week in many ways, but for those saying home as advised it was just more of the same—which makes for an odd disconnect.  But, watching the daily statistics soar at every level was every bit the horror show that experts warned it would be.  In the US as a whole and also in Texas, more people died last week from COVID-19 than in all the time previously.  (See below.)  

Federal assistance remains ephemeral.  All of it—from the $1,200 stimulus checks for individuals to the small business aid—has run into snags, endless forms, and repeated delays.  Not surprising, really.  I was raised in the south, so I know not to trust “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

In Texas, official promises remain centered on the prevalent testing that will become available here any day now….  Some cities are flaring up with cases.  Nursing homes are, predictably, hot spots for the disease.  Texas churches remained able to host in-person services for Easter, which is insanely reckless.  Our restaurants are allowed to continue operating, preparing food for pick-up and delivery; early on, they were granted the bonus of selling alcohol for take-out and delivery, and now they can sell grocery items that way, as well. (Many restaurants decided operating in any fashion wasn’t safe for the public or for their own staff and closed.)  Construction workers here are classed as essential, even if they are building luxury homes or office buildings, restaurants, shopping malls—all spectacularly unneeded now but still profitable for those higher up the economic ladder (who are, doubtless, safely working from home).  So, construction workers doing nothing at all related to our precious “infrastructure” as touted in the governor’s order are required to expose themselves and their families to getting sick, or they get fired and don’t qualify for benefits.  The same is true for all our essential workers, but at least those in law enforcement, health care and even food services actually ARE doing work that people need to survive this crisis.  We all need our police and fire workers to show up, we all need medical staff on the job, and we all need grocery stores stocked.  But, we do NOT all need countless more high-end homes going up in Rough Hollow right now.  As a recent University of Texas study concluded, allowing general construction work to continue endangers the workers as well as the community.  UT study: Construction activity can raise coronavirus risks for workers, community.  https://www.statesman.com/business/20200410/ut-study-construction-activity-can-raise-coronavirus-risks-for-workers-community?utm_source=SFMC&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Austin%20American-Statesman%20breaking-coronavirus%202020-04-10&utm_content=GCOX_AUS&utm_term=041120

Here in Lakeway, the city held a Council meeting last week, via video conference.  Members logged in from home, with results running the usual gamut.  Residents could watch live online, and it was recorded, as always.  The agenda was fairly short with nothing particularly controversial, so no one bothered to register beforehand to phone in public comments. (This is an odd way to handle citizen participation and needs to be improved going forward.)  I DO wonder why the new economic development committee approved at the meeting will have all 3 of its members appointed by the mayor AND will meet behind closed doors—another decidedly opaque move by an administration fond of touting its transparency.

As far as little old me, I’m still working from home. I finished Louise Penny’s The Beautiful Mystery and started her How the Light Gets In, and I’m watching season 2 of Star Trek Discovery.  I also spent an inordinate amount of time making fabric masks. (And failing.  It’s definitely harder than all those breezy videos make it look….) I’m seeing more folks on my early morning walks, and regrettably many are of the path-hogging sort.  Last week, I cancelled newspaper delivery as the digital version is safer, but reading the Sunday paper online isn’t nearly as enjoyable.  My 3 kitty girls are perfect in every way, as usual. 

My Easter was brightened by watching online a concert Andrea Bocelli gave today, in an empty cathedral in Milan.  Just 30 minutes, it was 4 sacred songs (including Ave Maria) in Italian, with the finale (Amazing Grace in English) shot outside and accompanied by current footage from Paris, London & NYC–all beautifully empty cites.  Watch Andrea Bocelli: Music For Hope – Live From Duomo di Milano https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huTUOek4LgU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0kZ1Aaaxlj2Vz16G1xtnhNz7KTeINnaM9EAzWuTHdtXYfSi-Bsv91FuW4&src=Linkfire&lId=f864ffed-b5e8-46de-a5ba-dc3521efb601&cId=d3d58fd7-4c47-11e6-9fd0-066c3e7a8751

Perspective is key. 

A week ago (April 5), these were the numbers on COVID-19, cases/deaths:

Worldwide                             US                              Texas                         Travis Co.

1,269,313/69,346           334,745/9,572    6,812/127                484/6

There were 16 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.

Today’s numbers (April 12):

Worldwide                             US                              Texas                         Travis Co.

1,851,734/114,179           560,402/22,105   13,484/271            774/9

There are 21 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.

Things I wonder about….

–How early will fawns be born here in Lakeway this year?  It used to be I didn’t start seeing them parked around town until late May.  Then, it was mid-May.  Last year, the first photo of a newborn fawn spotted in Lakeway was posted on social media on April 12. 

–The US in general and Texas in particular have, in the time since COVID-19 became a known threat, glaringly failed to make testing for the disease readily available.  So, is there any reason to think we will fare any better with the next 2 major hurdles—antibody testing of the population and (eventually) vaccine administration to everyone? 

–Why are our “essential” workers among the lowest paid, least respected, and most powerless members of our population?  And, how long are they going to jeopardize themselves and their families, with inadequate protection, under grueling conditions, and often for minimum wage—while the rest of society stays safely at home?

I update my COVID-19 page daily with useful articles.  See the Menu for that page; here is the link– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

Personally, life hasn’t changed that much during the COVID-19 crisis, as far as my routine.  I have worked from home for years, which is terrific—especially now.  So, I still work full-time from my laptop, ably assisted by my 3 cats, in my office with a huge window looking onto my yard and quiet street.  Plus, I’m an introvert who very much prefers my own company and have no problem staying entertained at home, as long as the internet is up and I have books to read.  (Of all the necessary closures, I miss the library the most, for the DVDs and the novels.  Now, I am re-reading Louise Penny’s Canadian mysteries from my own shelves, so I’m happily set for awhile.)  I continue my daily early morning walks, through the neighborhoods and golf courses for an hour or 2; I see pretty much the same people now as pre-crisis, maybe because it is too early in the day for the now-at-home families to be out.  I still do online yoga some days at lunchtime (well, I’m getting back into it slowly, as my broken wrist heals–also slowly) and ride my exercise bike some evenings.  Going out for errands used to be a break in routine that I looked forward to; now, I dread running low on perishables and having to zip into HEB at what I hope is an off-time with less of a crowd but decent stock.  Once back at home, I leave my shoes in the garage and try to sterilize whatever I managed to find, wondering if the trip was worth the effort and the risk.  So far, I’m not arranging grocery deliveries; it doesn’t seem to work that well, especially with all the shortages now.  I did set up automatic deliveries from Amazon for some staples, and as always I have regular orders coming from Chewy’s for the cats’ food, treats and litter.  So, we’ll manage.

Suggestions to stay sane, or at least distracted:

—TED Talks.  This is a showcase for smart people who speak well in public, on absolutely any topic imaginable.  It’s addictive.  https://www.ted.com/talks

—Yoga with Adriene  https://yogawithadriene.com/  She lives in Austin.  Beginner or expert, you can join her group as a paying member, and I’m sure she’d appreciate that.  But, she also has an endless amount of material available totally free.  https://yogawithadriene.com/free-yoga-videos/  Maybe get started with one of her month-long sets (she hosts them live every January) and do a routine each day.  Here is one set– https://yogawithadriene.com/free-yoga-videos/true-30-day-yoga-journey/

—Jeanne Robertson’s comedy routines are available on YouTube.  Her acerbic yet genteel wit delivered via Southern drawl charms me no end.  Here’s a good one to get you started, and from there you can sample as you like.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1_W0LCHwK4

—Air Pano has astounding photos and videos.  See the world, without wearing a mask….   It’s like watching The Amazing Race minus the obnoxious contestants.  http://www.airpano.com 

—Rat Race Rebellion/Virtual Jobs and Side Gigs is an online resource that screens work-from-home job offers (a sadly scam-heavy area).  So, if you want a part-time or full-time job you can do at home, definitely check them out.  But, they ALSO list tons of side gigs, such as filling out surveys, you can do online.  It won’t replace a regular paycheck, but it can fill a chunk of your day and even be entertaining.  If you don’t need the money personally, donate the funds to a favorite cause; to do even more good, challenge family and friends to do the same.  https://ratracerebellion.com/

—Foster a cat or dog.  If you are looking for something tangible, not to mention cuddly, consider bringing a homeless pet into your household during this crisis.  Area shelters are crowded with animals but low on volunteers, while adoptions are way down.  And, spring is here, which means babies—lots and lots of babies.  Newborn kittens and puppies are high-maintenance, and shelters will not be able to take them in or keep them alive.  If you can foster a pet temporarily (or adopt one permanently) you will be saving a life.  And, pets keep you busy, engaged and optimistic. There are many area shelters, and they can set you up for foster care or adoption with social distancing precautions observed.  Options include Thundering Paws (cats), Addicus Legacy (dogs), and Austin Pets Alive (cats and dogs).

–If you have kids at home now, I’m sorry.  I cannot even imagine how much that complicates things….  But, while you have a captive audience, consider teaching them basic skills that this crisis has demonstrated people still need.  Like how to plan and cook meals.  And clean the house.  Laundry.  Yard work.  Pool maintenance.  Basic repairs.  And if YOU don’t know how to do those things, look online—there’s a video out there covering just about anything.  If society became more self-reliant, that would help us all.

Perspective is key. 

A week ago (March 29), these were the numbers on COVID-19, cases/deaths:

Worldwide                             US                              Texas                   Travis Co.

720,415/ 33,908                141,125/ 2,458      2,552/34          179/1

Today’s numbers (April 5):

Worldwide                             US                              Texas                   Travis Co.

1,269,313/69,346              334,745/9,572     6,812/127        484/6

Also, the stats today report 16 confirmed cases in Lakeway’s zip codes of 78734 and 78738.

Things I wonder about…. 

–How many people were killed today, a Sunday, due to Gov. Abbott last week allowing in-person church services to be held again, despite expert opinion, local orders and common sense saying that’s a really, really bad idea?  It isn’t just people attending the services who were jeopardized, but everyone those people will come in contact with over the next 2 weeks, plus everyone THEY come in contact with, etc., including medical personnel eventually required to treat the sick.  Some will die. They were killed today; they just don’t know it yet. 

–How can anyone think this is the time to invite folks into their homes to paint the kitchen, clean house, move furniture, and do other routine chores?  How can anyone be so oblivious as to arrange for a professional to come to their home and give everyone mani/pedis?  (Yes, I saw all of that and more arranged on local social media sites last week.)  What will it take for people to stop endangering themselves, their families, and everyone caught in the wake of their recklessness?

–Mostly, I wonder how bad will things be a week from now?

So, one week later, and it is a different world…. 

As of March 22, the US has surged past France, Germany, Iran and Spain and is now behind only Italy and China in the COVID-19 race, with 32,580 confirmed cases and 415 deaths.  In Texas, testing finally started; so far, there are 334 confirmed cases and 5 deaths.  Both Texas and Lakeway declared disasters and took interim steps.  All schools, restaurants and bars (other than take-out/delivery), and gyms are now closed.  Gatherings are limited to 10 people, effectively shutting down all events.  People have been asked to stay home when they can.

Little has happened at the federal level; relief measures are in process.  The 50 states seem to be expected to handle the pandemic individually.  Unfortunately, our governor has so far failed to take the critical step of closing all non-essential businesses and ordering residents to stay home.  This type of lockdown is already in place in several other states (NY, CA, IL, PA, NJ, OH, and LA as of today).  Medical experts warn that Texas hospitals are unprepared and ill-equipped to deal with the anticipated deluge of seriously ill patients.  Soon, it will be too late for even a lockdown to stem the tide in Texas.

Right now, countries—including the United States—have 2 choices regarding handling COVID-19, mitigation or suppression.  These are the options analyzed in 2 papers (the  HHS Report in the US and the Imperial College Report in the UK) recently provided to governments.

If you aren’t familiar with the issue, then start with this short article–Every lockdown is a good thing and there isn’t a moment to lose, but only testing can save America https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/20/1929361/-Every-lock-down-is-a-good-thing-and-there-isn-t-a-moment-to-lose-but-only-testing-can-save-America?detail=emaildkre

If you can, also read this crucial article; it isn’t short or easy, but it is important–Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time, By Tomas Pueyo  https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Again, the choice is mitigation or suppression.

Mitigation is reducing exposure with half measures that only slightly flatten the curve, knowing that most of the population will still get sick very quickly.  The result is likely to be 10 million people dead in the US alone.  Then, the hope is the worst is over and life can get back to normal in a few weeks.  (The 3 biggest problems with mitigation are detailed below.)

Suppression is controlling movement of the population, vastly reducing infection and keeping the death rate down to thousands instead of millions.

Some people favor mitigation because they say letting the virus run its course will get things over with quickly, avoiding the economic collapse sure to happen otherwise.  They assume suppression would keep people locked down for months; that is not the case.  Going by the experiences of countries now emerging from the pandemic, the dire restrictions of suppression (termed “the hammer” in Pueyo’s article above) are only needed for a few weeks to get COVID-19 under control.  China did it with severe lockdowns.  South Korea Singapore, Taiwan and Japan instead did it with stringent testing, tracing, travel bans, isolating and quarantining.

After that comes “the dance” part of suppression, which will continue until a vaccine is developed for COVID-19.  The economy recovers during this phase.  There will be outbreaks here and there; restrictions will need to tighten up and then can be released.  We will have to balance economy vs. healthcare–getting life back to normal vs. spreading the disease.

Another huge problem with the mitigation strategy is that it assumes those who get COVID-19 and survive will be immune; mitigation depends on herd immunity to end the pandemic.  However, China found this virus mutated fast–it was actually the mutated strain that spread worldwide.  If allowed to happen, millions of US cases would foster mutation, so survivors would NOT be immune.  The horror show would play out over and over, with millions more dying each cycle.

Worst of all, mitigation doesn’t allow us the time needed to develop effective treatments or even a cure for COVID-19; already, there are promising possibilities being tested.  Plus, time would allow us to build up the needed medical resources, everything from masks to ventilators, and to train more medical personnel.  Why sacrifice 10 million people if there is a chance to save them?  Suppression would give our scientists and doctors precious time.

As Pueyo’s article states, this is the choice—

MITIGATION: On one side, countries can go the mitigation route: create a massive epidemic, overwhelm the healthcare system, drive the death of millions of people, and release new mutations of this virus in the wild.

OR

SUPPRESSION: On the other, countries can fight. They can lock down for a few weeks to buy us time, create an educated action plan, and control this virus until we have a vaccine.

Just click on Texas (or any other state) in the map graphic on this site to see the numbers of projected deaths for 4 responses to COVID-19—doing nothing, social distancing, shelter in place, lockdown.  You will see the difference suppression/lockdown can make. https://covidactnow.org/?fbclid=IwAR3uMh9Q08L6O_3ZJzHYBpL4FkyGJQfKSg8V2o-3nUwsTm1Gl6s1xAvLquY

Right now, several states are choosing to fight, by locking down their populations temporarily.  They hope to stop the virus from spreading, save millions of lives, and give doctors and scientists time to find effective treatments and develop a vaccine.  So far, these states include New York, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio and Louisiana.  I hope Texas finds the conviction to do the right thing, and soon.

Again, I update my COVID-19 page daily with useful articles.  See the Menu; here is the link– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

Please use the Contact page on the Menu to send me a message, including links to include on my page, or to be informed when I post a new blog.

Well, this was not what I planned as my first blog post or how I wanted to debut my website, but reality got ugly and here we are.   

People kept telling me to start a blog, to write about Lakeway doings.  That idea grew into a website with pages on a variety of topics.  I launched the site last week and did some beta testing with a few people.  I was planning a first blog message on the deer issue–no surprise there….  (There is a page devoted to Lakeway’s Deer, as well as a page on Lakeway’s Government and much more—check the Menu above.)

But, in response to what happened in the last week with coronavirus/COVID-19, I hastily added a page for that.  It has a timeline that is largely US-based, as well as many links to click for further info, plus a basic list of cancellations/closures.  I sincerely hope this will turn out to be a temporary page, with upcoming events being positive enough that this soon becomes a non-issue and I can take it down.  Until then, I plan to update the page regularly.  I want it to be a hub for current info, as well as a resource for anyone doing research.  What you will NOT find on my page are toilet paper jokes, lewd emojis, and memes belittling people who are concerned about the issue. 

If you find info or resources that should be added to the COVID-19 page, please use the Contact page to send me the link.  Check back regularly for updates— https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

Use the Contact page to send me your name and email address if you want to get notified of additional blog posts.

Coronavirus/ COVID-19

As of Saturday, March 14, there are confirmed COVID-19 cases in 49 states, plus DC, with a national emergency declared.  Texas has declared a state emergency, with well over 50 confirmed cases, 5 in Travis County, as of today.  Worldwide, China and South Korea seem to be turning the tide on their early outbreaks, but the situation in Europe (particularly Italy and Spain) is horrific; the number of severely ill patients has overwhelmed the health care system, with people dying due to lack of medical equipment and resources.

It is too late to stop coronavirus in the US.  All we can do is try to slow it down, protect our most vulnerable citizens, and get through this crisis.

Remember when “shelter in place” seemed such a strange concept?  Now, it is commonplace.  Welcome to “social distancing” and “self-isolation,” the best strategies to cope with coronavirus.  Why do this?  Well, you may keep yourself and those around you from getting sick.  But, experts say the main goal is to slow the spread of the disease so that people don’t all get sick at once, which would overwhelm the medical system and vastly increase the death toll.  It is one thing to get sick when a hospital bed, IV fluids and a ventilator are available, along with medical personnel to care for you.  It is much, much worse to get sick when there are not enough medical resources available to keep everyone alive.  Spreading out the number of patients during an epidemic is known as “flattening the curve.”  That’s what we need to do.

I am definitely NOT a health care professional. But, I can read, and I can be taught.  Here is what I have learned:

COVID-19 is not like the flu.  Yes, both are caused by a virus.  So are rabies, smallpox, hepatitis, herpes, mumps, polio, Ebola, and many other diseases.  People like to say the flu kills many more people than COVID-19.  Actually, while the flu is quite common, a minuscule segment of people die from the flu (less than one tenth of one percent).  We don’t really know yet how many people die from COVID-19, because of the lack of testing outside of China.  But, experts say to expect a death rate of 2-4%.  That is vastly higher than the death rate from the flu, a quantum leap in the wrong direction.  Comparing COVID-19 to the flu is misleading, and at this point everyone should know better.

There is no vaccine for COVID-19.  Anything now in the works is many months out, so forget about a vaccine during the current outbreak.

There is no cure for COVID-19.  Antibiotics don’t work, because COVID-19 is caused by a virus, not by bacteria.  So far, doctors haven’t found a drug that makes it better.  (They are looking at a few possibilities, but nothing is going to come to the rescue during this outbreak.)  All that can be done is supportive treatment until it runs its course—IV fluids to combat dehydration, meds to reduce fever, and supplemental oxygen.  COVID-19 typically causes breathing problems in vulnerable patients, requiring a ventilator in severe cases.  Hospitals have a finite number of ventilators, and patients cannot share them.

While most people who get COVID-19 will survive, don’t underestimate the number of people who are at risk (vulnerable, susceptible, fragile–whatever you want to call it). Factors include being over 60, having any major health issue (heart problem, diabetes, kidney damage, cancer, etc.), having any lung problem (asthma, emphysema, history of pneumonia, COPD, being a smoker now OR in the past, etc.), compromised immune system, and more.  So, even if you aren’t worried about getting sick yourself, think about the people in your orbit; there are fragile people among family, friends, and coworkers, not to mention in the group standing nearby when you sneeze or coming behind you and opening the door you just touched.

Even survivors may not bounce back.  Survival rates are calculated on people who don’t die of COVID-19 and cease being contagious, period.  Survivors may well remain hospitalized, suffer permanent lung damage, or be unable to work or resume their normal lives for an extended period of time.

So, it is time to modify our behavior, which no one likes.  Sorry—did you think this was going to be a FUN pandemic?

Stop hugging, shaking hands, etc.  That is now, officially, dangerous over-sharing.  (I have seen the suggestion we go back in time a bit, and bow or curtsy in greeting.  Totally safe and a definite conversation-starter.)

Practice scrupulous hygiene—hand-washing, using antibacterial wipes, etc.  This is a good time to indulge your OCD impulses.

Work from home, if there is ANY way to make that an option. 

Cancel in-person meetings and group activities.  Conference calls, Skype, and many new apps are safe alternatives.  Seminars, conferences, reunions, etc. should be postponed. 

Stay at home as much as possible.  And find ways to MAKE it possible.  Forget about all but the most crucial errands; plan ahead, shop in bulk, and visit stores as seldom as possible. Shopping online and delivery services are also safe options.  Avoid restaurants, bars, clubs, theaters, etc.  (Many restaurants are already adapting to offer curb pick-up and delivery.)  Gyms are germy in the best of times, so work out at home; there are online classes for just about everything, including yoga, and most are free.  Happily, there are plenty of options for at-home entertainment these days—use them.    Consider carefully all the usual appointments—haircuts, facials, manicures, massages, dental cleaning, routine auto service, dog grooming, etc.  Is any of that really worth the risk right now?

Avoid travel.  It may hurt to cancel a trip, but public transportation is toxic for the time being.  Even constantly wiping down surfaces won’t guard against sneezes and coughs.  Do you want to risk being quarantined far from home?

Unless you are sick, stay out of doctor’s offices, clinics, hospitals, etc.  Postpone minor matters and routine appointments.  You don’t need to waste health care resources OR run into someone who is contagious.

If you DO think you may have COVID-19, call your doctor or the closest urgent care facility to find out the best way to handle getting evaluated and tested.  Only call 911 or go to a hospital if you are having trouble breathing or are in acute distress.  Coronavirus testing is only done on people meeting the risk criteria (recent travel to certain areas, contact with a confirmed case, specific symptoms).  For more info in Texas, call state public health COVID-19 hot line, 1-877-570-9779. 

Again, my COVID-19 page is here– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

Please use the Contact page to send me a message, including links to include on my page or to be informed when I post a new blog.