Nina–write or wrong in Lakeway

So, one week later, and it is a different world…. 

As of March 22, the US has surged past France, Germany, Iran and Spain and is now behind only Italy and China in the COVID-19 race, with 32,580 confirmed cases and 415 deaths.  In Texas, testing finally started; so far, there are 334 confirmed cases and 5 deaths.  Both Texas and Lakeway declared disasters and took interim steps.  All schools, restaurants and bars (other than take-out/delivery), and gyms are now closed.  Gatherings are limited to 10 people, effectively shutting down all events.  People have been asked to stay home when they can.

Little has happened at the federal level; relief measures are in process.  The 50 states seem to be expected to handle the pandemic individually.  Unfortunately, our governor has so far failed to take the critical step of closing all non-essential businesses and ordering residents to stay home.  This type of lockdown is already in place in several other states (NY, CA, IL, PA, NJ, OH, and LA as of today).  Medical experts warn that Texas hospitals are unprepared and ill-equipped to deal with the anticipated deluge of seriously ill patients.  Soon, it will be too late for even a lockdown to stem the tide in Texas.

Right now, countries—including the United States—have 2 choices regarding handling COVID-19, mitigation or suppression.  These are the options analyzed in 2 papers (the  HHS Report in the US and the Imperial College Report in the UK) recently provided to governments.

If you aren’t familiar with the issue, then start with this short article–Every lockdown is a good thing and there isn’t a moment to lose, but only testing can save America https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/20/1929361/-Every-lock-down-is-a-good-thing-and-there-isn-t-a-moment-to-lose-but-only-testing-can-save-America?detail=emaildkre

If you can, also read this crucial article; it isn’t short or easy, but it is important–Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time, By Tomas Pueyo  https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Again, the choice is mitigation or suppression.

Mitigation is reducing exposure with half measures that only slightly flatten the curve, knowing that most of the population will still get sick very quickly.  The result is likely to be 10 million people dead in the US alone.  Then, the hope is the worst is over and life can get back to normal in a few weeks.  (The 3 biggest problems with mitigation are detailed below.)

Suppression is controlling movement of the population, vastly reducing infection and keeping the death rate down to thousands instead of millions.

Some people favor mitigation because they say letting the virus run its course will get things over with quickly, avoiding the economic collapse sure to happen otherwise.  They assume suppression would keep people locked down for months; that is not the case.  Going by the experiences of countries now emerging from the pandemic, the dire restrictions of suppression (termed “the hammer” in Pueyo’s article above) are only needed for a few weeks to get COVID-19 under control.  China did it with severe lockdowns.  South Korea Singapore, Taiwan and Japan instead did it with stringent testing, tracing, travel bans, isolating and quarantining.

After that comes “the dance” part of suppression, which will continue until a vaccine is developed for COVID-19.  The economy recovers during this phase.  There will be outbreaks here and there; restrictions will need to tighten up and then can be released.  We will have to balance economy vs. healthcare–getting life back to normal vs. spreading the disease.

Another huge problem with the mitigation strategy is that it assumes those who get COVID-19 and survive will be immune; mitigation depends on herd immunity to end the pandemic.  However, China found this virus mutated fast–it was actually the mutated strain that spread worldwide.  If allowed to happen, millions of US cases would foster mutation, so survivors would NOT be immune.  The horror show would play out over and over, with millions more dying each cycle.

Worst of all, mitigation doesn’t allow us the time needed to develop effective treatments or even a cure for COVID-19; already, there are promising possibilities being tested.  Plus, time would allow us to build up the needed medical resources, everything from masks to ventilators, and to train more medical personnel.  Why sacrifice 10 million people if there is a chance to save them?  Suppression would give our scientists and doctors precious time.

As Pueyo’s article states, this is the choice—

MITIGATION: On one side, countries can go the mitigation route: create a massive epidemic, overwhelm the healthcare system, drive the death of millions of people, and release new mutations of this virus in the wild.

OR

SUPPRESSION: On the other, countries can fight. They can lock down for a few weeks to buy us time, create an educated action plan, and control this virus until we have a vaccine.

Just click on Texas (or any other state) in the map graphic on this site to see the numbers of projected deaths for 4 responses to COVID-19—doing nothing, social distancing, shelter in place, lockdown.  You will see the difference suppression/lockdown can make. https://covidactnow.org/?fbclid=IwAR3uMh9Q08L6O_3ZJzHYBpL4FkyGJQfKSg8V2o-3nUwsTm1Gl6s1xAvLquY

Right now, several states are choosing to fight, by locking down their populations temporarily.  They hope to stop the virus from spreading, save millions of lives, and give doctors and scientists time to find effective treatments and develop a vaccine.  So far, these states include New York, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio and Louisiana.  I hope Texas finds the conviction to do the right thing, and soon.

Again, I update my COVID-19 page daily with useful articles.  See the Menu; here is the link– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

Please use the Contact page on the Menu to send me a message, including links to include on my page, or to be informed when I post a new blog.

Well, this was not what I planned as my first blog post or how I wanted to debut my website, but reality got ugly and here we are.   

People kept telling me to start a blog, to write about Lakeway doings.  That idea grew into a website with pages on a variety of topics.  I launched the site last week and did some beta testing with a few people.  I was planning a first blog message on the deer issue–no surprise there….  (There is a page devoted to Lakeway’s Deer, as well as a page on Lakeway’s Government and much more—check the Menu above.)

But, in response to what happened in the last week with coronavirus/COVID-19, I hastily added a page for that.  It has a timeline that is largely US-based, as well as many links to click for further info, plus a basic list of cancellations/closures.  I sincerely hope this will turn out to be a temporary page, with upcoming events being positive enough that this soon becomes a non-issue and I can take it down.  Until then, I plan to update the page regularly.  I want it to be a hub for current info, as well as a resource for anyone doing research.  What you will NOT find on my page are toilet paper jokes, lewd emojis, and memes belittling people who are concerned about the issue. 

If you find info or resources that should be added to the COVID-19 page, please use the Contact page to send me the link.  Check back regularly for updates— https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

Use the Contact page to send me your name and email address if you want to get notified of additional blog posts.

Coronavirus/ COVID-19

As of Saturday, March 14, there are confirmed COVID-19 cases in 49 states, plus DC, with a national emergency declared.  Texas has declared a state emergency, with well over 50 confirmed cases, 5 in Travis County, as of today.  Worldwide, China and South Korea seem to be turning the tide on their early outbreaks, but the situation in Europe (particularly Italy and Spain) is horrific; the number of severely ill patients has overwhelmed the health care system, with people dying due to lack of medical equipment and resources.

It is too late to stop coronavirus in the US.  All we can do is try to slow it down, protect our most vulnerable citizens, and get through this crisis.

Remember when “shelter in place” seemed such a strange concept?  Now, it is commonplace.  Welcome to “social distancing” and “self-isolation,” the best strategies to cope with coronavirus.  Why do this?  Well, you may keep yourself and those around you from getting sick.  But, experts say the main goal is to slow the spread of the disease so that people don’t all get sick at once, which would overwhelm the medical system and vastly increase the death toll.  It is one thing to get sick when a hospital bed, IV fluids and a ventilator are available, along with medical personnel to care for you.  It is much, much worse to get sick when there are not enough medical resources available to keep everyone alive.  Spreading out the number of patients during an epidemic is known as “flattening the curve.”  That’s what we need to do.

I am definitely NOT a health care professional. But, I can read, and I can be taught.  Here is what I have learned:

COVID-19 is not like the flu.  Yes, both are caused by a virus.  So are rabies, smallpox, hepatitis, herpes, mumps, polio, Ebola, and many other diseases.  People like to say the flu kills many more people than COVID-19.  Actually, while the flu is quite common, a minuscule segment of people die from the flu (less than one tenth of one percent).  We don’t really know yet how many people die from COVID-19, because of the lack of testing outside of China.  But, experts say to expect a death rate of 2-4%.  That is vastly higher than the death rate from the flu, a quantum leap in the wrong direction.  Comparing COVID-19 to the flu is misleading, and at this point everyone should know better.

There is no vaccine for COVID-19.  Anything now in the works is many months out, so forget about a vaccine during the current outbreak.

There is no cure for COVID-19.  Antibiotics don’t work, because COVID-19 is caused by a virus, not by bacteria.  So far, doctors haven’t found a drug that makes it better.  (They are looking at a few possibilities, but nothing is going to come to the rescue during this outbreak.)  All that can be done is supportive treatment until it runs its course—IV fluids to combat dehydration, meds to reduce fever, and supplemental oxygen.  COVID-19 typically causes breathing problems in vulnerable patients, requiring a ventilator in severe cases.  Hospitals have a finite number of ventilators, and patients cannot share them.

While most people who get COVID-19 will survive, don’t underestimate the number of people who are at risk (vulnerable, susceptible, fragile–whatever you want to call it). Factors include being over 60, having any major health issue (heart problem, diabetes, kidney damage, cancer, etc.), having any lung problem (asthma, emphysema, history of pneumonia, COPD, being a smoker now OR in the past, etc.), compromised immune system, and more.  So, even if you aren’t worried about getting sick yourself, think about the people in your orbit; there are fragile people among family, friends, and coworkers, not to mention in the group standing nearby when you sneeze or coming behind you and opening the door you just touched.

Even survivors may not bounce back.  Survival rates are calculated on people who don’t die of COVID-19 and cease being contagious, period.  Survivors may well remain hospitalized, suffer permanent lung damage, or be unable to work or resume their normal lives for an extended period of time.

So, it is time to modify our behavior, which no one likes.  Sorry—did you think this was going to be a FUN pandemic?

Stop hugging, shaking hands, etc.  That is now, officially, dangerous over-sharing.  (I have seen the suggestion we go back in time a bit, and bow or curtsy in greeting.  Totally safe and a definite conversation-starter.)

Practice scrupulous hygiene—hand-washing, using antibacterial wipes, etc.  This is a good time to indulge your OCD impulses.

Work from home, if there is ANY way to make that an option. 

Cancel in-person meetings and group activities.  Conference calls, Skype, and many new apps are safe alternatives.  Seminars, conferences, reunions, etc. should be postponed. 

Stay at home as much as possible.  And find ways to MAKE it possible.  Forget about all but the most crucial errands; plan ahead, shop in bulk, and visit stores as seldom as possible. Shopping online and delivery services are also safe options.  Avoid restaurants, bars, clubs, theaters, etc.  (Many restaurants are already adapting to offer curb pick-up and delivery.)  Gyms are germy in the best of times, so work out at home; there are online classes for just about everything, including yoga, and most are free.  Happily, there are plenty of options for at-home entertainment these days—use them.    Consider carefully all the usual appointments—haircuts, facials, manicures, massages, dental cleaning, routine auto service, dog grooming, etc.  Is any of that really worth the risk right now?

Avoid travel.  It may hurt to cancel a trip, but public transportation is toxic for the time being.  Even constantly wiping down surfaces won’t guard against sneezes and coughs.  Do you want to risk being quarantined far from home?

Unless you are sick, stay out of doctor’s offices, clinics, hospitals, etc.  Postpone minor matters and routine appointments.  You don’t need to waste health care resources OR run into someone who is contagious.

If you DO think you may have COVID-19, call your doctor or the closest urgent care facility to find out the best way to handle getting evaluated and tested.  Only call 911 or go to a hospital if you are having trouble breathing or are in acute distress.  Coronavirus testing is only done on people meeting the risk criteria (recent travel to certain areas, contact with a confirmed case, specific symptoms).  For more info in Texas, call state public health COVID-19 hot line, 1-877-570-9779. 

Again, my COVID-19 page is here– https://ninawriteorwronginlakeway.com/coronavirus-covid-19/

Please use the Contact page to send me a message, including links to include on my page or to be informed when I post a new blog.